TREASURIES-Yield curve flattens as Fed stays hawkish amid low inflation


Reuters

* Fed's Rosengren: Low rates are risk to financial stability
    * US five-, 30-year yield curve flattest since 2007

    By Karen BrettellNEW YORK, June 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury yield curve
flattened to its lowest levels since December 2007 as more
hawkish Federal Reserve officials led intermediate-dated notes
to underperform long-term bonds, which are being supported by
falling inflation.
    Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said on Tuesday that the
era of low interest rates in the United States and elsewhere
poses financial stability risks and that central bankers must
factor such concerns into their decision-making. [nN9N1IS003]
    On Monday, New York Fed President William Dudley said
halting the rate-hiking cycle now would imperil the economy, and
unemployment at 4.3 percent now and inflation at 1.5 percent
were "a pretty good place to be." [nL1N1JG15M]
    "The more the Fed beats in this relentlessly hawkish
message, the more the yield curve just ends up flattening on
it," said Aaron Kohli, an interest rate strategist at BMO
Capital Markets in New York.
    The yield curve between five-year notes and 30-year bonds
<US5US30=TWEB> flattened to 107 basis points, the lowest since
December 2007.
    The yield curve has flattened as the Fed's hawkishness
contrasts with weakening inflation.
    Data last Wednesday showed that the so-called core Consumer
Price Index (CPI), which strips out food and energy costs,
increased 1.7 percent year-on-year in May, the smallest rise
since May 2015. [nL1N1JA1CO]
    That measure has fallen from a year-on-year rise of 2.2
percent in February. [nLNNFEEDC1]
    "The Fed has been talking much more hawkishly than the past
in the context of the recent data," said Kohli. "It's not that
the levels are disturbing, it's that the trend is really
disturbing."
    Five-year note yields <US5YT=RR>, which are among the most
sensitive to Fed policy, have jumped to 1.80 percent from a
six-month low of 1.67 percent on Wednesday, before the U.S.
central bank raised interest rates for the second time in three
months.
    Thirty-year bond yields <US30=RR>, which are most influenced
by inflation expectations, by contrast have tumbled to 2.76
percent from 2.80 percent after the Fed's rate hike last week.
    Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> were last up 3/32 in
price to yield 2.18 percent, down from 2.19 percent late on
Monday.

 (Editing by Bernadette Baum)
 ((karen.brettell@thomsonreuters.com; 646-223-6274))

((-------MARKET SNAPSHOT AT 9:29 a.m. EDT (1329 GMT)-------
June T-Bond <USM6>           156        (+18/32)
June 10-Year note <TYM6>     126-16/32  (+02/32)
                                       Change vs    Current
                                          Nyk        yield
Three-month bills<US3MT=RR>  1.0125     (unch)       1.029
Six-month bills  <US6MT=RR>  1.1225      (+0.00)     1.145
Two-year note <US2YT=RR>     99-25/32        (-)     1.369
Five-year note <US5YT=RR>    99-26/32   (-01/32)     1.793
10-year note  <US10YT=RR>    101-24/32  (+03/32)     2.179
30-year bond  <US30YT=RR>    104-29/32  (+20/32)     2.759

DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
                                          LAST      Change
U.S. 2-year dollar swap spread            19.75     (-0.25)
U.S. 3-year dollar swap spread            15.75     (+0.50)
U.S. 5-year dollar swap spread             7.00      (unch)
U.S. 10-year dollar swap spread           -1.25     (+1.00)
U.S. 30-year dollar swap spread          -32.00     (+2.25)))

Keywords: USA BONDS/



This article appears in: Politics , Fundamental Analysis , Stocks , World Markets , Economy , Bonds


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