Trading the Globe: Turkey and Chile

By Emerging Money>,

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Bombed out heavyweights or two of the highest-quality markets in the world, Turkey and Chile are in focus on today's installment of Trading the Globe. Both Turkey and Chile have been driving home policy adjustments as they fight inflation. Turkey -- as embodied by TUR ( quote ) -- has not gotten us this bulled up in years. Middle East contagion fears and the recent prospect of an oil spike have made this market a hot button for global macro guys and regional players alike to short, turning it into a major opportunity in the making. Last night, the Turkish lira ( quote ) rallied but is still cheaper than it has been in years on a trade-weighted basis. Easing commodity prices should keep the TRY firm from here. While the central bank has a better handle on inflation than people think, real rates are going higher, which should also boost the lira and local bank margins. Good for Garanti ( TKGBY , quote ) and Yakbank if you can trade it, or just TUR, which is 16% weighted in financials. And the telecom group has underperformed, so TKC ( quote ) gives you exposure there. Likewise, once-high-flying Chile is now down 10% in local currency terms. Here, the local currency is too strong for comfort, even though rates need to go higher. These are two mutually contradictory outcomes, but in the meantime the central bank is selling pesos and buying dollars. The upside here is that the currency has been a function of copper prices. Watch for lower copper prices to give you an opportunity to trade the non-copper components of the Chilean ETF ECH ( quote ). ECH normally trades at a premium to other Latin stocks but is now in line with the group -- down at a P/E of 15.4 times estimated earnings. Domestic demand is still a theme, so look at power company Endesa ( EOC , quote ), which is trading at 12.5 times earnings versus a historical P/E of 18.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

This article appears in: Investing , Stocks
Referenced Stocks: ECH , EOC , TKC , TKGBY , TUR

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