Trading Radar: What's on Tap for the Turkey Day-Shortened Week

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The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) broke into marginal new record highs while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJI:INDU) made new highs in the past week. Sentiment remained very bullish, but the upward trend showed no signs of bending or breaking. Treasuries sold off heavily following the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, but recovered strongly over the past two days.

Next week will be cut short by the Thanksgiving holiday. Thursday, US markets will be closed and Friday will be a short day. Even still, there will be a lot of economic data released. Tuesday the delayed September housing starts and building permits will be released in addition to the October report for each. Mortgage applications for purchase only declined by 2.6% during the month of October, consistent with jumps in mortgage rates due to the government shutdown, so it is unlikely that there will be any surprises in the reports. The other report scheduled for Tuesday is the September S&P/Case Shiller home price index. Because existing home prices only rose 11.3% YoY and fell 5.4% MoM in September, it is likely that the S&P report has the potential to fall short of expectations.

Consumer confidence fell in September and October due to the tensions from the government budget negotiations. The preliminary November University of Michigan/Reuters consumer confidence index fell to a 22-month low at 72.0. Additionally, the Conference Board's confidence measure fell to 71.2 last month from 80.2 and is forecast to rise slightly to 72.2.

The last important data points for the week are October durable and capital goods orders, and the Chicago regional manufacturing survey. Durable goods orders ex-transports -- the more closely followed figure from the report -- is estimated to rise 0.5% from the month prior. Capital goods orders, which carry significant weight in the US's GDP, is estimated to rise 0.7% from the prior month. Lastly, the November regional Chicago manufacturing report is estimated to fall to 60.0 from 65.9 last month -- still strongly in growth territory. This region's manufacturing activity is tightly tied to auto sales, so a big beat likely means stronger auto sales.

European markets will not be closed, but data releases are light regardless. The UK will release the first estimate of third-quarter GDP, which is estimated to grow 1.5% from a year ago. Also, Japan will release its consumer price index, retail sales, employment change, and consumer spending from October on Thursday night.

There are only a few earnings reports scheduled for the week. Notable reports include Nuance Communications ( NUAN ), Workday ( WDAY ), Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ), Barnes & Noble ( BKS ), and Hewlett-Packard ( HPQ ).

Monday, November 25

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

10:00 Pending Home Sales YoY - expected -1.0%, prior 1.1%
10:30 Dallas Fed - expected 3.8, prior 3.6
11:00 Fed buying $2.75b-$3.5b bonds in 8 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills
1:00 Treasury selling $32b 2-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

08:30 GBP BBA Loans for Home Purchase

Earnings

After:
Nuance ( NUAN )
Workday ( WDAY )
Palo Alto Networks ( PANW )

Tuesday, November 26

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

08:30 September and October Housing Starts - Oct expected 920K
08:30 Sep/Oct Building Permits - Oct expected 930K
09:00 S&P/Case Shiller 20 City MoM - expected 0.90%, prior 0.93%
09:00 S&P/CS YoY - expected 13%, prior 12.82%
09:00 Home Price Index MoM - expected 0.4%, prior 0.3%
10:00 Consumer Confidence - expected 72.4, prior 71.2
10:00 Richmond Fed - expected 3, prior 1
11:00 Fed to purchase $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 23 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 Treasury selling $35b 5-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Minutes of BoJ Oct meeting
05:00 JPY Small Business Confidence

Earnings

Before:
Barnes & Noble ( BKS )

After:
TiVo (TIVO)
Hewlett-Packard ( HPQ )
Tiffany's (TIF)

Wednesday, November 27

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - expected 330K, prior 323K
08:30 Continuing Claims - expected 2858K, prior 2876K
08:30 Durable Goods Orders - expected -1.9%, prior 3.7%
08:30 Durable Goods Ex Transports - expected 0.5%, prior -0.1%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air - expected 0.7%, prior -1.1%
08:30 Cap Goods Shipments Nondef Ex Air - expected 0.2%, prior -0.2%
08:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index - expected 0.10, prior 0.14
09:45 Chicago PMI - expected 60.0, prior 65.9
09:55 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence - expected 73.0, prior 72.0
10:00 Leading Index of Economic Indicators - consensus 0.0%, prior 0.7%
11:30 Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

NZD Trade Balance
7:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator
09:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence
09:30 GBP 3Q GDP advance estimate

Earnings

No major reports scheduled

Thursday, November 28

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

US markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

Japan Investors Purchases of Foreign Bonds/Stocks
JPY Retail Sales
01:30 CNY Industrial Profits YTD
06:45 CHF GDP 3Q
08:55 EUR German Employment Change
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence (final estimate)
13:00 EUR German CPI

Earnings

No major reports scheduled

Friday, November 29

US Economics (Time Zone: EST)

US equity markets close at 1pm EST. Bond markets close at 2pm EST

09:00 ISM Milwaukee - prior 57.1

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY Household Spending
JPY Employment Change
JPY CPI
JPY Industrial Production
CNY Leading Economic Index
05:00 JPY Housing Starts
08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicators
09:30 GBP Net Consumer Credit
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI
13:30 CAD GDP 3Q

Earnings

No major reports scheduled

Twitter: @MichaelSedacca



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.



This article appears in: Investing , Stocks

Referenced Stocks: BKS , HPQ , NUAN , PANW , WDAY

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