A $4 trading range on the week for
but prices were virtually unchanged on the week. Prices tried to
penetrate $94 all week unsuccessfully closing out the week at the
trend line. I am still expecting downside with a target of $90.
gained 15 today to close above $3/gallon and trade at a fresh 2012
high. Exit all bearish trades looking to reestablish once we break
below the 8 day MA - in October at $2.96.
continues to dance around the 8 day MA. I'd like to see a break of
the 18 day MA into next week. It will likely take weakness in the
entire energy sector for this to play out.
broke down today losing 3.4% closing back under the 100 day MA. Use
that level as resistance now. Based on recent trade recs I've been
stopped on both sides so I'm walking away until the dust
Very little follow through based on yesterday break out action in
. But that is attributed to the unfavorable jobs number this
morning. Well I think a bad number could mean QE so who knows in
this market? What I do know is I'm on the sidelines and have
advised clients with big stock positions to lighten up the whole
way up as I do not think it is sustainable.
Egg on my face ... I'll be the first to admit I thought metals had
reached an interim top and I'm wrong.
gained 2% today and nearly 5% in the last 5 days. This lifts prices
to 6 month highs. I missed this most recent leg and would not be a
fresh buyer until prices retraced. For now $1700 is eyed as support
with $1670 under that level.
gained over 3% today with prices approaching $34/ounce also at 6
month highs. Support is seen just under $33 with next upside target
of $35. I have no client exposure as I told traders to get off this
train too early. High to low in 2012
completed a 50% Fibonacci retracement gaining over 20 cents this
week. A strong correlation exists to the stock market currently so
I don't think we will get much more.
may be running out of gas. I say this because even in the face of a
falling dollar today cocoa could not get out of its own way. I'm
still searching for a sign to get short.
advanced 2.7% today on decent volumes. After getting stopped on
fresh lows I'm not ready to advise longs just yet but maybe next
week with more evidence. I'm still expecting a break in
but first let's see a trade under the 50 day MA for confirmation.
gained 3% today but just on dollar weakness as I see nothing
positive in coffee. After a bounce I may have some bearish
suggestions ... stay tuned.
failed to hold onto early gains trading below but closing just
above its 20 day MA. Expect more selling into next week.
are exhibiting the same action but at a smaller degree. This
environment in my opinion is perfect for establishing a NOB spread
(short 30-year long 10-year 1:1).
After 3 negative weeks
finished higher this week. I expected prices to roll over here but
with stock investor upbeat maybe they are eating more beef. No
seriously - when equities turn south cattle should follow ... I was
early on both I guess. As long as the 20 day MA supports prices
could grind higher without my clients.
closed lower just under the 9 day MA and on a penetration of the 20
day MA; in September at 143.25 an interim top would be called.
Until then stand aside.
are approaching 70 cents trading near 20 month lows. A 61.8%
Fibonacci retracement on the weekly chart puts prices near 68
cents. As I've said a trade in the 60's has 2013 swing trades on my
closed out the week under $8/bushel but we've yet to see the flush
I've been expecting. Patience is a virtue as I still like sitting
on bearish trade thinking $7/bushel will become a reality before we
see a return to the highs. That being said you can have tight stops
just above the MAs in my opinion. Great risk to reward.
have closed lower the last 5 sessions finishing the week under its
9 day MA for the first time in 3 weeks. Next week should be the
week we see prices back under $17/bushel.
bounced off its 50 day MA lifting prices back over $9/bushel.
Continue to fade rallies as $8.30 remains my target.
got pummeled today breaking 81.00 for the first time in 4 months.
More downside is expected but I'm more interested in trading the
commodities that could be effected by this move then the dollar
itself. All crosses benefited on the dollar depreciation with the
biggest winners the
. The commodity currencies should catch a bid in the short run.
Depending on stop placement the
shorts should have been stopped at a loss today or will next week
on any further advance.
The opinions contained herein are for general information only and
not tailored to any specific investor's needs or investment goals.
Any opinions expressed in this article are as of the date
indicated. Trading futures, options and Forex involves substantial
risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to
initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this
article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not
receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with
any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Drivers In The New Week Of Sept. 24