By
Matthew
Bradbard
:
Energy
:
Crude oil
started the week in the green lifting prices over $92/barrel.
Support is still seen at the 8 day MA just under $90 while upside
is eyed at $94.50 in September. Inside day in
RBOB
with prices failing to gain for the first time in five sessions.
Support is seen at the 61.8% Fib level just above $2.88. I don't
feel upside is exhausted and a probe of $3 is possible in my
opinion. September
heating oil
traded above the 100 day MA for the first time since the first week
of May. Like RBOB I see prices making a run above $3 on this leg.
Natural gas
stopped short of breaking the 50 day MA trading higher for the
first time in five sessions. If prices retake $3 in the coming
sessions I would say an interim bottom has been established but I
am still in the camp that we could see a trade closer to $2.60 ...
stay tuned.
Stock Indices:
Doji star in the
indices
as gains could not be maintained. Prices rolled over from around
the same levels in late April/early May but it is too premature to
predict history repeating itself. If long remain long until prices
get below the 9 and 20 day MAs.
Metals:
Gold
continues to tread water but a positive development could develop
if prices close above the 100 day MA, in December at $1620. Prices
above $1590 have me mildly bullish.
Silver
trading continues to be like watching paint dry. Unit silver can
get out of its own way I would not put too much attention on
trading in either direction. Like a coiled spring when this market
decides on a direction expect an explosive move ... the difficult
part will be the timing. I do not cover
platinum
often but looking at both the daily and weekly charts if prices
maintain the $1400 level traders can scale into bullish trade with
stops just below that key support level. For pricing I am referring
to the October futures.
Softs:
Cocoa
is overbought but as long as the greenback is trading south look
for a bid to remain.
Sugar
broke the 100 day MA and should continue lower as a 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement puts October back near 21.25. Since bouncing off the 50
day MA last week
cotton
has appreciated nearly 5 cents of 7%. The 100 day MA in December
comes in just under 78 cents and should be challenged in my
opinion.
Coffee
could go either way and I will offer the same advice from last week
a close above the 100 day MA or below the 50 day MA should
determine the direction of the next leg.
Treasuries:
30-year bonds
and
10-year notes
held onto small gains but as long as prices remain under their 9
and 20 day MAs I'm bearish. The only problem with this stance is my
success here is likely predicted on a climbing stock market and I
do not see much more upside. I will not let my opinion play a
factor as prices are bearish in
Treasuries
until the aforementioned MAs are penetrated.
Livestock:
October
live cattle
are having trouble hanging onto profits and with a settlement back
under the 9 day MA today and an interim top may be in. Aggressive
traders can probe shorts with stops above the recent highs. Those
long
feeder cattle
should tighten stops just under the 9 and 20 day MAs as not to give
back too much. October
lean hogs
continue their decline getting close to 75 cents, a drop of over
10% in the last week with no end in sight.
Grains:
December
corn
managed to dance around the 9 day MA, closing back above $8/bushel
after trading below that level most of the day. I'm still thinking
deprecation is due that could drag prices closer to $7. November
soybeans
lost 2.7% to close under their 20 day MA for the first time since
this contract traded above $13. The current price is just shy of
$16/bushel. My downside targets are $15.20 and possibly $14.70. The
20 day MA supported
wheat
as prices were able to hold the $9/bushel level. My downside target
in CBOT wheat is $8.35.
Currencies:
The dollar index held at the 82.00 but I view this as temporary
with a target of 81.00 in the September contract. The easy money
has been made in the
commodity currencies
so I would be looking for an exit door. For fresh entries long the
Euro
have stops just under the 20 day MA would be my suggestion. Shorts
in the
Yen
should have stops just above the recent highs.
Risk Disclaimer
: The opinions contained herein are for general information only
and not tailored to any specific investor's needs or investment
goals. Any opinions expressed in this article are as of the date
indicated. Trading futures, options and Forex involves substantial
risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Disclosure:
I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to
initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
See also
The Consequences Of Financial Repression
on seekingalpha.com