probed the 8 day 8 MA on the downside but did pare losses to close
just under the 100 day MA, virtually unchanged in today's session.
I'm in the camp that prices are due for a $5-8 retracement. I
advised aggressive clients to gain bearish exposure with either
futures or options to try to capitalize on that break. The story of
late has been the strength of the distillates as I believe if it
was not for the uptick in
and heating oil price of crude would be lower. RBOB is hovering
around 3 1/2 month highs just above $3/gallon but if my assessment
of crude is correct expect a correction in the coming weeks.
ended lower today for the first time this week losing 0.60%. I
would not rule out a 20 cent break in the distillates and would be
exiting remaining long trades.
lost 5.4% today is off 15% from the highs 2 weeks ago. Prices
probed the 50 day MA for the first time since mid-June. I think
prices could retrace an additional 4-&% from current
closed higher now for the last 5 weeks but until prices can make
fresh 2012 highs my take is we are in the ninth inning of this up
cycle. Sentiment remains bullish until the 9 and 20 day MAs are
breached. I would be legging out of individual holdings and
lightening up on positions that have participated in the most
recent jump the last 10 weeks.
closed above its 100 day MA and a bullish engulfing candle to boot.
Support should come in on the December contract just above $1600
with upside resistance seen at $1645 followed by $1660.
maintained $28/ounce closing higher for the fifth consecutive week.
The remarkable part is that in that time frame prices have climbed
less than $1/ounce. It appears a strong base has formed but I would
only have small long exposure as this market has not proven itself
prices should continue to trade up in the coming weeks but do not
rule out retracements along the way. Prices may have gotten ahead
of themselves short term so a 5% pullback may be in the cards. As
long as September maintains 2300 I am bullish.
has traded lower 12 out of the last 15 trading days and though I've
advised traders to exit bearish trades I've yet to issue buy
recommendations. Solid support is not seen for another 8-10%.
lost 3% today to resume its move lower. Prices of cotton have been
heavily correlated to the S&P so I had expected a grind higher
but with the USDA report today prices may be on their way lower. I
would not trade futures currently but buying some out of the money
puts is a viable trade in my opinion.
could challenge $1 and as long as the 50 day MA caps upside in
November at $1.15 I'm bearish.
broke the 50 day MA this week and should leak lower in the coming
weeks challenging the mid-June levels.
lost ground for the third week in a row though this week's losses
were muted. I'm bearish as long as prices remain under their 9 and
20 day MAs.
remains a no trade for me as I continue to get mixed signals.
could go either way as well in my opinion so until I get a clearer
direction I will have no buy or sell recommendations in either
cattle contracts. Aggressive traders could lightly probe longs in
as long as 75 cents holds on a closing basis.
traded to a new contract high on a bullish USDA report but failed
to hold onto gains ending 40 cents off highs. The fact that
everyone is preaching higher corn may be enough to get this market
headed south? Circumstances are pointing toward higher ground but a
breach of the 20 day MA from today's close should get longs
reversing or moving to the sidelines. A friendly USDA also likely
contributed to the strengths in
. I'm operating under the influence that beans are bullish until
prices can take out $15.50 in the November contract.
data was bearish and has largely been a follower as prices gave up
nearly 3% today to close over 40 cents off its highs. This was the
only major ag market to break its MAs so next week will be
interesting. My clients have missed the bulk of this run and those
that have been in my only advice is don't give back too much on a
managed a small profit this week after two losing weeks. Prices to
me appear that lower ground is due as long as the 20 day MA just
above 83.00 contains upside. The
ended near its weekly highs so I would back off selling until we
see what transpires early next week with fresh entries. Aggressive
traders can probe bearish plays in the
not looking for a collapse but as a swing trade in my opinion.
: The opinions contained herein are for general information only
and not tailored to any specific investor's needs or investment
goals. Any opinions expressed in this article are as of the date
indicated. Trading futures, options and Forex involves substantial
risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to
initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Latin America's China Addiction: Part 1 - China's
Soft Landing Impacting Regional Growth