By
Matthew
Bradbard
:
Energy
:
Crude will finish about in the middle of the $4 trading range we
experienced this week. After challenging the trend line the last
two days, bulls are trying to make a case for a bounce but I am
still looking for a trade under $90 in the coming weeks.
RBOB
finished the week strong with a 2.3% jump today lifting prices back
just under $3/gallon in October. $2.70 remains my target in the
coming weeks.
Heating oil
bounced off its eight-day MA to close at four-month highs just
under $3.20. $2.90 remains my target and I do not see the products
or crude able to hold onto these gains next week.
Natural gas
is nearly 8% off levels seen mid-week as prices are trading back
above their 18-day MA. Prices will likely bounce from here lifting
October close to $3 in my opinion.
Stock Indices:
Stocks traded lower for the second week in a row, but as of this
post, prices were able to hold key pivot levels, above 1400 in the
S&P
and 1300 in the
Dow
. All things considered, it's impressive stocks were able to hold
near their highs but my stance remains a correction is upon us. My
targets are 1350 and 12700 in the coming weeks ... trade
accordingly.
Metals:
Gold
managed to pick up 2.25% to close out the week just under
$1700/ounce near five-month highs. The 200-day MA supported all
week and acted as a launching pad today. I would still not rule out
a trade near $1635 before we see much higher prices.
Silver
ended the week on a surge of 4.4% higher with prices completing a
50% Fibonacci retracement at their highs. The 200-day MA supported
this metal as well. $30.50 is support while upside should be capped
at $33 in the short run.
Softs:
Cocoa
jumped nearly 10% this week, far exceeding my expectations, but I
think the easy money has been made on longs. As long as October
sugar
hovers around the 20-cent level, it can be accumulated as I expect
a bounce in the coming weeks. The June lows will need to hold for
me to remain long.
Cotton
gained for the third consecutive session and though I don't expect
much upside, the 100-day MA in December will serve as the pivot
point; at 75.25.
Coffee
ends the week about where it started the week near its August lows.
There is no need to trade coffee until we get a bounce, which I
would look to sell ... stay tuned.
Treasuries:
30-year bonds
have advanced 4% in the last two weeks completing a 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement as of today. Probing shorts is back on my radar if we
see more upside into next week. On a percent basis,
10-year notes
have only moved about half as much but they too completed a 61.8%
retracement lifting September near 135'00. Same advice..I may
explore shorts next week ... stay tuned.
Livestock
:
Live cattle
should continue to grind higher. Use the 20-day MA as support with
an upside target of $127.00.
Feeder cattle
closed near their highs on the week and should see further
appreciation to come as well. If September can take out $147.00, do
not rule out $150.00. After two painful weeks,
lean hogs
were able to squeeze out a small victory gaining slightly. I feel a
bounce could play out in the coming weeks thinking October can get
back near 77.00.
Grains:
$8/bushel continues to serve as magnet to prices in December
corn
. Establish bearish trades with stops just above the highs this
week at the 9- and 20-day MAs and look to add to the trade on a
breakdown. $7/7.10 remains my target. In my opinion,
soybeans
have the most explosive potential in ags so wait for signs of a top
before gaining bearish exposure. A close under $17 in November
would be a great start, and the current price is $17.56.
Wheat
ended the week back under $9/bushel, which appears to be the pivot
point in the December contact. As long as prices remain under
$9.20, you can trade from the short side in my opinion. My target
is $8.30.
Currencies:
The
dollar index
lost 0.60% to trade at 3 ½ month lows filling a gap in the chart
from mid-May. If prices can hold 81.00 into next week, I'd expect a
bounce from here. The
yen
can be bought with stops under the 20-day MA, about $750 of risk
per contract. Fade a rally in the
aussie
that approaches 1.0450.
Risk Disclaimer
: The opinions contained herein are for general information only
and not tailored to any specific investor's needs or investment
goals. Any opinions expressed in this article are as of the date
indicated. Trading futures, options and Forex involves substantial
risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Disclosure:
I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to
initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this
article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not
receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with
any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
See also
Today In Commodities: Dollar Falls Near Five Month
Lows
on seekingalpha.com