traded on both sides of the trend line I've mentioned in previous
posts, closing just under that key pivot point. I know a broken
record, but as long as prices remain under $98, I'm bearish. My
targets in October are $94 followed by $90.
continues to flirt with $3 on its 1.4% advance today, but as one
can see, prices feel apart from around these same levels back in
March ... will history repeat itself?
was a slight gainer today, but is still 7 cents off its intra-week
highs. In fact prices appear on the verge of penetrating their 8
day MA, a pivot level for several months. Both distillates when
they start moving lower should move in the neighborhood of 20
ran into resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci level trading back down
to the 100 day MA today. I would tighten stops on remaining longs
as this price action has bulls on their heels. Remain long if not
stopped out, but for new money, I would wait for a clearer
Hello blow off top in the
. This was on positive ISM and upbeat comments from the head of the
ECB, but expect it to be temporary on an ugly NFP number tomorrow.
I don't trust the fresh highs and expect a penetration of the trend
line this month with prices making their way back to levels not
seen since July ... you heard now - how you react is on you.
finished higher by 0.68% closing above $1,700 an ounce for the
first time since mid-March. As I said in recent posts, I do not
expect prices to remain above these levels for an extended period.
After a correction that should start any day now, I would be
willing to re-establish a bullish trade for clients. Those longs
should hedge positions or lighten up.
hit my $33 target ... (see previous posts) and from here, I would
expect some back and fill. $30.50 is my initial target on a
continues to march forward, gaining 1.4% today and lifting prices
to fresh 2012 highs. I think prices are far overdue for a
correction but I also said that 5% ago. I would stand aside until
we find an interim top.
broke its June lows in recent dealings trading down the last 4
sessions to fresh 2012 lows. All longs should have been stopped out
at a loss on this. I will be looking to probe longs again once
evidence of a bottom develops. The 50 day MA has supported
the last few sessions, but when prices break 75 cents in December,
I anticipate a quick move to 70 cents. My suggestion is to buy out
of the money December puts or ratio spreads trying to capitalize on
the coming depreciation.
has lost a dime in the last week - not at Starbucks but in the
futures market. This puts prices just above 3 month lows, but if we
break $1.55, do not rule out $1.50.
I was half right ... I did recommend closing out longs in
Treasuries of late, but unfortunately I did not advise clients to
have given back just over 2 basis points the last 3 sessions and
are on the verge of breaking their 20 day. It appears the tides are
shifting ... my only hesitancy is if stocks roll over we could
catch a bid so tread lightly.
notes are moving in the same direction having given up ground as
well. A breach of 133'16 would likely lead to a 132'00 trade in
September. My clients have no direct exposure. Perhaps one of my
favorite trades currently was featured today under Premium Research
at RCM was bearish exposure in long dated Eurodollars. Getting
short December 2014 futures or long puts at these levels is very
attractive in my eyes.
may have reached an interim high - let's see into the weekend if
prices can hold their short-term MAs. On a settlement below $125.25
in October, I'd be willing to probe a bearish trade with clients.
are starting to exhibit signs of a top but wait for more evidence.
If prices cannot take out $1.46, we should see a trade back near
$1.40 ... trade accordingly.
lost 2.5% today as prices are on the verge of trading in the 60s
... that has not happened since late 2010. I would love on a swing
trade to try to pick up longs in 2013 contracts 5 cents lower ...
remained under $8/bushel, and as long as prices are capped by their
short-term MAs, I like bearish exposure. I've been calling for a
correction what seems like a month and prices remain range bound.
After a near 70% appreciation, I think it would naive to think we
could not get a major correction ... the timing is the difficult
are not off a lot, but prices have closed lower for the last 4
sessions ... a feat that had not been accomplished during this run
in the last four months. Could a top be in? From my perspective,
traders could probe shorts looking to make $2-3 for every $1 they
risk. It is worthy of a trade in my opinion.
has bounced off its 50-day MA the last 2 sessions. If $8.65 can
give way in the December contract, next stop should be $8.30.
The critical 81.00 level continues to support the
, but tomorrow's NFP will set the tone moving forward. Looking
longer term at the weekly dollar chart, we are on support that has
held since September of last year, so the next few days will be
critical. If 81.00 gives way, 78.00 should come into play, so I
would likely have to adjust a number of trades in ALL other
commodities that remain dollar sensitive. The
reversed as it appears we may get a bounce from here ... bearish
trades will likely get stopped out on a further advance. Aggressive
traders can gain bearish exposure in the
but have tight stops because of the inverse relationship to
: The opinions contained herein are for general information only
and not tailored to any specific investor's needs or investment
goals. Any opinions expressed in this article are as of the date
indicated. Trading futures, options and Forex involves substantial
risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to
initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this
article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not
receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with
any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Global Macro: What's Next?