started the week trading slightly lower, but was able to hold the 8
day MA, in September at $89.04. As long as $88.40, which serves as
the 20 day MA supports, I remain friendly.
continues to inch higher, trading back up to the 100 day MA today.
This level has acted as a resistance for nearly four months, so it
would be a bullish development if September could get above $2.83.
The 8 day MA is supported in
just above $2.86, while resistance is seen at $2.94. I am mildly
bullish, and I expect both distillates to follow crude higher or
lower in the short run.
surged nearly 7% today, to close near the highest levels seen in
2012. I do not trust these levels, and I do not wish to have
bullish exposure until a correction ensues.
Equities failed to follow through after last week's surge to end
the week. Just maybe the perceived reaction to the news out of
Europe is not as bullish as previously anticipated. The path of
least resistance remains up, but do not rule out a 1.5-2.5%
correction after the pop last week. Solid support is seen around
12750 in the Dow and 1350 in the S&P.
was only a slight gainer, but was able to take back the 100 day MA.
That level should serve as a pivot point, so pay close attention to
$1620 and how gold reacts the next few sessions. As long as prices
hold $1600, I'm friendly. However, prices have run into resistance
around these same levels over the last three months, so we will
likely need to see a new catalyst to take gold to higher levels.
picked up nearly 2% today, lifting prices over $28/ounce and three
week highs. Further buying could lift silver near its 100 day MA at
$29.55. Traders with longer time frames could be scaling back into
December bullish exposure.
is up 6% in the last three days, lifting prices to resistance
levels that have capped upside for the last four months. If
weakness persists in the dollar, a trade over 2400 and six month
highs would be expected.
futures have fallen a little over 1 penny in the last week, but I
think it has further room to fall. In October, my target is a trade
under 22 cents. Continue to use the 50 day MA at 70.75 in December
as your pivot point in
. Short trades should have been stopped at a profit, as
probed the 50 day MA today.
is back above the 100 day MA…my suggestion is for bearish traders
to move back to the sidelines.
were higher on the session, but as long as prices remain under
their 9 day MAs, I like bearish trade. I still feel a 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement could play out, which would drag September
30-yr bonds near 145'00 and 10-yr notes near 132'00.
are trading at 2½ month highs, but have reached overbought levels.
It may be premature at the moment, but I will be looking to probe
bearish trades in the coming session when I see signs of an interim
have built a solid base of late, and with a close over the 9 day MA
the last two sessions, I think we see a bounce short-term. On a
closing basis, as long as prices hold 134.00, I would have an
upside target of 145.00. October
have gained three out of the last four sessions, and appear like
they have further ground to cover. As long as 80.50 holds, I would
broke out to fresh highs, closing above $8/bushel. I prefer the
sidelines. As the saying goes, grains take the stairs higher and
the escalator lower, and I anticipate a nasty correction. I've said
this for the last week. Although Ags are in the headlines, in that
time frame, prices have only climbed 5-7% depending on the
contract. I do not want to get locked into what I think will be a
15-20% correction. In the last three days,
have recouped 75% of the decline in recent weeks. The market has
caught its breath, but a further correction may play out, so I
would walk away until it happens. For those braver than me, support
in November is at $16.25, followed by $15.80.
also has recovered most of its losses, closing back above the 9 day
MA, just under $9.25 in December. I'm still forecasting a further
correction here as well.
The 20 day MA is the pivot point in the
index, and prices are currently below that level. In September,
that pivot point is 83.25. The best performers of late have been
the commodity currencies, and that should continue as long as
commodities remain in favor. Those long the
should trail stops as the easy money has been made, in my
The opinions contained herein are for general information only and
not tailored to any specific investor's needs or investment goals.
Any opinions expressed in this article are as of the date
indicated. Trading futures, options, and Forex involves substantial
risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to
initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Disparate ETFs Have Common Prospect Measures