: Inside day in
, trading marginally lower, but prices did regain their 8 day MA. I
remain mildly bearish as long as prices remain under $98. My target
-- on a breach of $94, we should see prices flow under $90/barrel.
My suggested play is short futures while simultaneously selling out
of the money puts 1:1.
failed to make it to higher ground, but prices remain above their 8
day MA as well. Prices are overbought and due for a correction, but
that does not mean we do not see a probe higher first. A settlement
under the 8 day MA is needed for my confirmation.
was a small gainer, but this distillate too appears to be on the
verge of a trade lower. If October cannot retake $3.18 in the
coming sessions, a trade under $3/gallon should play out in the
coming weeks, in my opinion.
bounced off the same support that held in late August, gaining
nearly 6% today. I have no long or short exposure until a clear
direction is determined.
finished lower by 0.40%, with the
on a percentage basis losing almost twice that ground. If prices
can take out their short term moving average -- about 100-125
points lower in the Dow and 15-20 points lower in the S&P -- I
would be willing to probe bearish plays with clients thinking an
interim top was established. Until then, stand aside.
lost 0.75% today, but this is very little relief with the gain in
recent weeks. After a near $150 appreciation in recent weeks, a
correction would not surprise. This is not a bearish trade
recommendation, but perhaps lighten up or establish downside
hedges. On a retracement, $1680 should serve as support with a
larger correction $1625 in December.
failed to hold onto its early gain, closing almost 1% lower. On a
trade lower in this contract, I see support just under $33,
followed by $31.60 and then $30.30. Booking partial profits on
remaining longs makes sense to me.
failed at $3.70, as prices may be running out of gas after the 20
cent leap in the last 2 sessions. If $3.60 is taken out, I would
suggest exiting remain longs.
was slightly lower but pared losses, closing nearly 3% off its
lows. Fade rallies in December future as long as 2700 acts as
resistance. If the U.S. dollar can gain traction, I think prices
could trade to the trend line about 7-8% from current levels.
gained for the second day running, as 20 cents should be back in
play in the coming session. Risk to reward, I like the dynamic
thinking one could risk just over ½ cent in futures with a 1½ cent
has yet to breach the down sloping trend line that has existed
since February. In the next few days, I am expecting cotton to
break down, which would be confirmed on a penetration of its 50 day
traded under their 20 day MA the last two sessions, but the key
will be a settlement below that level. It appears to me there is
more downside to come.
are lagging and have not fallen off as much lately. This is the
perfect environment for a NOB spread in my opinion. The only
outside consideration is if we see a leg lower in equities, an
inverse relationship should play out, so I would not have a large
With today's loss
traded to their 9 day MA. On a trade under that level, expect
momentum traders to drag prices lower. My target in October would
were buoyed by their 9 day MA, gaining marginally. Aggressive
traders can gain bearish exposure with tight stops. My downside
target in November is 144.00. October
are over 2 cents off their lows from last week, but until prices
take out 74.50 on a closing basis, I'm just interpreting this as a
bounce. In a perfect world, longs can buy from lower levels…stay
lost 2% to put prices at six week lows. In December if the 50 day
MA can be taken out about 15 cents below today's settlement, I
think this would confirm a move closer to $7/bushel, which I've
been calling on in recent weeks. Traders should remain in bearish
trade as long as prices remain under $8.05. November
lost 1%, trading lower now for six straight sessions. This could
just be the beginning, as it will take another dime to break a
trend line that has supported the last four months. Advice to longs
is lightening up or establish hedges.
continues to meander around the $9/bushel level, looking for
direction from the other grain markets. A trade under $8.70 puts $8
in play in December, in my opinion.
As long as the
remains under 81.00, I'm in the bear camp. The European crosses may
have gotten ahead of themselves short term, but remain in bull mode
as long as the dollar is under pressure. Therefore, it is advised
to buy moderate dips in the
. Those short the
should have tight stops, as a trade above 1.2850 should have you
out at a loss. Prices have failed several times from around current
levels, but as we all know, past performance is not indicative of
The opinions contained herein are for general information only and
not tailored to any specific investor's needs or investment goals.
Any opinions expressed in this article are as of the date
indicated. Trading futures, options, and Forex involves substantial
risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past
performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to
initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this
article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not
receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with
any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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