Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on
Buzz & Banter
We've reached the halfway point of this freaky week as global
indices "back and fill" recent gains. You know the drill; with
mainstay indices up smartly this year -- the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
(INDEXDJX:.DJI) is up 22%, the
(INDEXSP:.INX) is ahead 25%, and the
is sporting a 30% return -- fund managers are "on edge" with 28
sessions left until the year-end letters are penned.
In recent sessions
over on our real-time Buzz & Banter
we've paid homage to the technical landscape -- initial support
with more meaningful supports down at
-- as we continue to respect the "long squeeze," with buyers higher
and sellers lower into year-end. Perception is reality in the
marketplace, and the masses have made a bet that current perception
continues to manifest.
There are a few caveats as the bulls count their Benjamins. For
one, the Investors Intelligence Advisor Sentiment Index finds 53.6%
bulls and only 15.5% bears, which is near the prior peak of 55.2%
bulls two weeks ago. That dovetails into the
(INDEXCBOE:VXO) chart below, which shows that "fear" is a kitten's
whisker away from 25-year support. If the past is any prologue to
the future, option hedges and/or stock replacements will prove to
be smart strategies.
Another flag, for those who care of such things, is the price
action in high-beta.
which was king of the world at $190
, is suddenly the poster child of ambition gone awry, while other
fliers, such as
Chipolte Mexican Grill
(FB) have become sudden battlegrounds. These names remain a proxy
for performance anxiety as they are "bang for the buck" vehicles
for those trailing their benchmarks.
We'll get the FOMC minutes this afternoon at 2 p.m. EST, which will
be dissected in kind. Keep an eye out for any tangible shift in
; while Ms. Yellen's Federal Reserve prides itself on wearing white
feathers (read: remaining dovish), dissension in the ranks could
rattle psychology in kind.
- The bears are cautiously optimistic that Monday was the start
of a long-overdue decline. "Even a broken clock is right twice a
day," said Boo the Bear as he adjusted his full-body cast. "I
don't know anyone who is short these days -- negative, perhaps,
but not short; being a bear has been too painful," he added. He's
right, insofar as every dip has been shallow this year -- and
they've seemingly gotten shallower as the year progresses.
Consistent with a long-held theme
, societal acrimony continues to continue, be it overt (
knockout -- really?)
or otherwise (
) wars). Thus far, "social mood and risk appetite" have
shaped financial markets; whether that's a function of the Fed,
cumulative in cause and effect, or just plain wrong remains to be
seen (and yes, if the final score was tallied today, it would be
- I can add "trips to the dentist" to my list of pet peeves,
along with close talkers, loud chewers and long lines. Be that as
it may, I will again venture to "the chair" this Friday for what
I hope will be the last trip in a while; four times in one week
fills my quota for the year, as those things go.
- The BLS is manipulating employment data? Yawn. That's right
up there with the
invisible hand being "news"
back in the day.
- Bitcoin? Reminds me of when analysts starting measuring
eyeballs in Y2K. It was generally accepted (or, rationalized) but
in hindsight, it was rather silly.
isn't doing it for me this season, but perhaps that's because
Jack Bauer set such a high bar!
- What do the recent high-profile talking-head contracts in the
financial space mean through the lens of social mood?
- When will Twitter pass Facebook on a pure price basis?
- Remember when the floor of the NYSE had more traders than
- What is it about years ending in "3"?
- Do you
think the Federal Reserve will be able to control interest rates
- Doesn't that fly in the face of everything we've learned
about a "free" market?
- If we synch your time horizon with your risk profile, can't
we take that journey one step at a time? (Yes.)
- I recently scribed
Stock Market Trading: 20 Rules of
which is 23 years' worth of trading tidbits wrapped into a single
URL. Hope you enjoy it....
- 100% of net proceeds raised by
The Ruby Peck
Foundation for Children's Education
will be donated to Typhoon Haiyan relief. For those interested in
paying it forward, this is as worthy a cause as any right now.