Even as stocks teeter in the wake of the results of the
election earlier this week, the bond market continues to perform
as well as ever. With new concerns about a global economic
slowdown, unrest in Europe, and the
impact of Hurricane Sandy
in the northeastern U.S., investors have taken flight to their
traditional safe haven, even with interest rates already at
rock-bottom levels.
But one particular corner of the bond market that has gone
largely unnoticed is now prone to get a lot more interest. With
the fiscal cliff and higher tax rates looming, the
once-sleepy municipal bond market
will draw plenty of attention from investors seeking to shelter
income from a big rise in tax rates.
Where the action has been
In recent years, bond investors have tended to focus on more
exciting parts of the credit markets in order to search for
potential investment opportunities. Despite the mortgage meltdown
and concerns about toxic assets, bonds backed by mortgages with
the implicit federal guarantee of government-sponsored
enterprises
Fannie Mae
and
Freddie Mac
have attracted huge amounts of attention, with
mortgage REITs
Annaly Capital
(
NLY
) and
American Capital Agency
(Nasdaq: AGNC) using them to profit handsomely from cheap
leverage and spreads between financing expense and asset-backed
security income. For those seeking high yields from direct bond
investments, investing in debt from
Sprint
(
S
) ,
CIT Group
(
CIT
) , and other
junk bond issuers
has offered much better interest rates than Treasuries, albeit
with greater default and business risk.
All the while, municipal bonds have languished outside the
limelight. Their yields have been almost as high as Treasury
yields for much of the past year, despite the fact that muni bond
interest is free of federal tax. By allowing you to avoid as much
as 35% of your interest going to Uncle Sam, muni bonds have
offered attractive after-tax rates.
Muni bonds have faced a couple of problems, though. First,
concerns about the ability of municipalities to repay bonds have
made muni investors a lot more nervous about investing in them,
especially after high-profile bankruptcies with several
communities around the nation. Second, with calls from both
parties for tax reform, some investors have feared that Congress
would lobby to remove or water down the tax-exempt status of
municipal bond interest, taking away a key component of their
attraction for investors and potentially causing big drops in
their value.
Big fight coming?
With a four-year track record of difficult relations on fiscal
matters, a divided Congress may well have too many more important
matters on its plate to worry about minor changes to municipal
bond taxation. Although both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama
proposed cutting the maximum tax break on municipal bond interest
from 35% to 28%, Romney would have gotten there due to a
reduction in the maximum overall tax rate, and so that apparent
agreement far from guarantees bipartisan support now that the
elections are over. The interest exemption arguably has more
value as a bargaining chip, but with no guarantee of a bargain
actually getting done, the chances of tax-free interest surviving
into 2013 and beyond are higher.
As a result, prices of municipal bonds rose yesterday, as
investors continued a buying spree that has 2012 on track to be
one of the most popular ever for muni bond demand. The
broad-based
iShares S&P Nat'l AMT-Free Muni ETF
(NYSEMKT: MUB) gained just a quarter percent, but many closed-end
muni funds specializing in bonds from particular states performed
much better. Combined with a relative lack of new supply of
municipal bonds as state and local governments rein in spending
and cut back on major capital projects, munis have posted
substantial gains in recent months.
Munis will only get more valuable if tax rates increase. With
the new top rate slated to rise to 39.6%, not including a 3.7%
surtax on investment income for high-bracket taxpayers, interest
that's exempt from tax will give people an even bigger tax
break.
Should you buy munis?
Municipal bonds are worth looking at, especially if you're at the
upper end of the income scale. Although they have their fair
share of risk, their after-tax returns compare well with
record-low rates on other types of bonds. If you already plan to
have fixed-income exposure in your taxable account, munis may be
the best way to maximize your interest income, taking what you
pay Uncle Sam into account.
Dividend-seeking investors may prefer the big yields that
mortgage REIT Annaly Capital gets from its mortgage-backed bond
portfolio. But there are some crucial issues investors have to
understand about Annaly's business model before deciding whether
Annaly's a buy. In our popular premium research report on the
company, our analyst runs through these absolute must-know
topics, as well as the future opportunities and pitfalls of their
strategy. Click here now to claim your copy.
Fool contributor Dan Caplinger has no positions in the stocks
mentioned above, although he owns municipal bonds through
closed-end funds.You can follow him on Twitter @DanCaplinger. The
Motley Fool owns shares of Annaly Capital. Try any of our Foolish
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the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse
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