Last week we had another week of gains as this bull market has
extended outside the Bollinger Bands. The stair-step trend
continues to hold higher and not wait for those looking for a
pullback. This is one of the most interesting and complicated
dynamics that I've seen in a while as performance anxiety runs
rampant on Wall Street. As a market participant, you have a road
map, but you never know how fast or what type of composure the
markets will follow to get there. All you can do is measure "pivot
inflection points" and then make adjustments accordingly,
especially if you approach it from an intermediate-term time frame.
We've had many of these spots to measure the strength and
commitment to make choices, choices to stay long or cover shorts,
since the year started. These areas are below:
1474 on January 17
1530 on March 5
1576ish on April 10
1597 on May 3
1636 on May 14
Today the futures are off a 1-2 handles after extending again last
Friday. Micro support for the
S&P 500 ETF
(NYSEARCA:SPY) stands at $166.50 and then $165.73. The 8-day moving
average is at $164.66. New pivot resistance is $167.00.
Banks have been a nice focus in the past two weeks as they set up
again for additional trades. At this point, I believe you could
stay with them.
) triggered above $151 and is now back at 2013 highs.
) triggered above $50 and had a nice five-day streak as consensus
seems to be that Jamie Dimon is staying.
) made a tremendous move since the gap up on May 3, then above the
targeted $24 area.
Bank of America
) gave another entry around $12.41 and still looks great.
) led the way for the credit cards above $558 and is at historic
(V) was tricky but finally extended above $180.
Transports (NYSEARCA:IYT) and the small-cap
Russell 2000 ETF
(NYSEARCA:IWM) led with the
(INDEXSP:.INX)but are a little extended now, so trim and trail.
Homebuilders (NYSEARCA:XHB) are creating another bull flag. See if
you can get a trade above $32.55.
Tech remains filled with opportunities on different days.
(GOOG) is best-in-breed and it has rested a few days after a
monster run. It's doing some work above $900. For momentum to
increase, I think it would need to clear $916-919.
(NFLX) gave two nice additional trigger buys at $210.50 then $220.
It has rested a bit now, so it can stay above $235ish then perhaps
it could go again above $245-248.
(AMZN) is getting interesting again as it's been in a channel since
January. The big area is $270-275, perhaps it could get going above
(PCLN) has been on fire since earnings and was upgraded today. I
would not chase this upgrade.
(EBAY) grinded all the way back near old highs and looks good but
might need to rest first before getting above $57ish.
(AAPL) hasn't impressed lately. Take some trades here and there. It
needs to stay above $418-420 to keep any interest at all.
(YHOO) is up a bit as it buys Tumblr, a deal that is receiving
widespread praise. It continues to be a nice spot to be this year.
(MELI) finally triggered for some Friday above $124.
(LNKD) is still trying to repair its chart. It needs to stay above
$179 for the possible chance for another trade above $185ish.
(FB) has lagged big time and is off most trader's radar. It needs
to get above $27.50 with some force to change that.
Some set-ups that look poised to break out on an intermediate-term
Stanley Black & Decker
(SWK) has a wedge pattern developed for more than a year. The big
level is $82 and the stock looks ready for a breakout.
(PX) broke above the downtrend trend line that started in April
2012 and is flagging above all key moving averages. It showed some
relative strength Friday. Above $115.46 we could see a move back to
$117 from April's pivot highs and higher prices after that. The
stock has a macro uptrend support since August 2011. The company
engages in the production, distribution, and sale of atmospheric
and process gases, and surface coatings in North America, Europe,
South America, and Asia. Praxair has a market cap of $33.5 billion
and is part of the basic materials sector and chemicals industry.
(GLW) first entry was on April 24 when it broke above the downward
trend line that has been controlled the stock since August 2011.
GLW saw a nice move since as it gained 18% within one month, and
looks like it's setting up to give us an additional entry above
$15.66, which is the key resistance from November 2011's pivot
highs. The stock also saw relative strength on Friday.
(FMC) has been grinding higher after finding some support at the
200-day moving average in April. It's currently flagging above the
8-day moving average after seeing a nice micro breakout move on May
14. FMC looks like it's setting up for another breakout above
(PCP) saw a nice gap up from earnings and flagging nicely above all
key moving averages. If it gets above $213, it could trigger the
next round of buying. PCP is a Fortune 500 company that is
headquartered in Portland, Oregon, and manufactures metal products
and components for the general industrial, power and aerospace
Oil Servicers ETF
(NYSEARCA:OIH) has a big level at $45 on the weekly chart. A move
through this level with some volume could add some power to its
recent rally as $45 marks a macro breakout level.
(APC) also has a year-long wedge pattern. The stock resumed well
after the most recent pullback and looks poised for a breakout
(MRO) is pushing into a major resistance level at $35.86 area.
There is a macro wedge pattern that has been developing in this
stock since 2011. It might make more sense to lean toward
short-side for now as the stock just saw a big straight-up move
since April 22 but on a longer-term basis, MRO looks like it's
setting up for a macro breakout above $35.86-36.
(COP) broke out of the ascending channel recently and is flagging
nicely above the 8-day moving average. It could see some
continuation above $63.14.
(LULU) is worth a look if it can get above $81.77.
(CMG) also looks okay but needs to clear $377.
Metals continue to take it on the chin and have been in broken
trends for months. Silver (NYSEARCA:SLV) in particular has been
getting hammered since futures opened last night. Pivots have been
important here as well. Intermediate traders could have made
adjustments in gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) around $161, then macro guys
around $148.50 and now we are back near reactionary lows of $130.
Next big support is $124-127, which we mentioned many times as a
spot it can get to in since the macro break.
Big Ben speaks on Wednesday, which will be the focus of the week.
I will look to create cash flow like everyone else, so let's try
and put together a nice week before Memorial Day.