Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on
Buzz & Banter
Freaky Friday has arrived and not a moment too soon!
I'm not sure if it's the specter of my total hip replacement next
week, the rigors of navigating this fakakta market, or the massive
amount of information we've assimilated this week, but I for one
look forward to taking a deep breath and being surrounded by some
Yesterday afternoon, I penned a
Minyanville Alert: The Moment of Truth
that pretty much sums up the financial scene through a technical
I'm not going to revisit the path we took to get here, but rather
the forward probability spectrum. It's do or die for the breakout
try-while the tape feels great, akin to
) at $700 or
gold at $1900
, past performance doesn't guarantee future results, although
history has been known to rhyme at times.
We can debate the GDP (which missed consensus estimates by 16%)
given the obscene-and I mean X-rated-levels of intervention in
global financial markets, but folks don't care; they're conditioned
to look through bad news because the Greenspan Put has been
replaced with the Bernanke Call.
There are two ways to view the dew: The market is far from free,
which will come home to roost,
the market is at all-time highs, and getting juiced. In other
words, we're witnessing the classic battle of fear vs. greed, and
the latter is spanking the former like its
Friday night in Jed's basement.
While my personal take is that these imbalances are
-and that means they've piled on top of the problems that caused
the first phase of the financial crisis
as risk transferred from one reality to another-it won't matter
until it does because
The Devolution of Social Mood
, as we continue to witness, is the "other side" of that trade, but
given it's amorphous and unquantifiable-this is still a fertile
frontier-most folks, or those who remain in the stock market, are
following the tape higher like a pied piper on steroids. Given
price is the ultimate arbiter of variant financial views , I'm not
saying that's wrong; it's just not without risk.
Europe is taking a breather-the German DAX recently rallied 5%, to
edge it back positive for the year-Asia was mixed and the stateside
tape is winking pink in the early going. For my part, this week has
been a real-time demonstration of how
to manage risk-
-as I've rolled up my short-side stops to the top of the range,
which is a stone's throw away from the levels today.
Emotion is the enemy when trading
, this we know, but being on the wrong side of the market ride
still weighs on one's psyche. And to think, it was only a week ago
that it felt like I had the market's script
Stay humble or the market will do it for you indeed.
Some charts that help paint our current field position:
The importance of +/-
A longer-term perspective; aka "The Triple Lindy":
Why the gold rally is "countertrend' until $1550 is recaptured:
A curious case of "lower highs" in the Transports:
(INDEXRUSSELL:RUT), meanwhile, is trying to pull a Tim Hardaway
(Sr., not Jr.) and will do so IF they can cross over RUT 950:
Finally, some Random Thoughts:
- While I continue to believe that
cannabis is a solid long-term theme
(despite not knowing pure plays;
) remain front-runners but there is too much tracking risk for my
liking), I'm also looking into Juice plays (such as Juicepress,
Project Juice...there are a few of them). Personally I'm hooked
on the product; professionally, I sense this could be the front
end of a large secular trend.
- The hip replacement on Tuesday is 51 weeks to the day since
my emergency heart surgery
. Nestled in between the scalpels were two family moves, an
office move, my wedding,
and a 'honeymoon that wasn't' due to my wife Jamie's pneumonia
and my daughter Ruby's croup. Yes, it's been an eventful
year-over-year stretch by any measure, but I'm pretty grateful
all the way around.
- A few folks pointed to the Boston Marathon bombings as a
tragedy "fit" with many of the themes we've discussed through the
). I didn't touch on it because, quite honestly, it cut too close
and I opted to send white light and leave it at that.
- Do I think that was an isolated incident? Unfortunately not;
an article in the
New York Post
about how the NYPD is planning "summer tests in the subway to
study possible chemical attacks." I wish I had been surprised to
read about it but I wasn't. In fact, if "social complacency" was
publicly traded, it may well be in bubble territory.
- Truth is, the
of social mood is
why I moved my family out of NYC.
That is not fail-safe, as we learned the hard way in Newtown, but
presumably, our children will be safer than they were in the
heart of midtown, and that's a smart step that continues to pay
- And the
(INDEXDJX:.DJI) had its best week in months.
Take that, Karl Marx.