With the S&P 500 touching another 52-week high on Monday,
investors need to be increasingly careful. Any new stock buys could
be coming in the later stages of a mini-rally that began around
Labor Day weekend. So it pays to move down the risk curve by
focusing on cheaper stocks that still possess upside but are also
more likely to hold their own in any market pullback.
Even with the recent rally, roughly 15% of the stocks in the
S&P 500 still trade for less than 10 times next year'searnings
. Some deserve to trade on the cheap, yet others are simply out of
favor now but would fare better as the economic cycle builds. Let's
take a closer look…
Cheap -- and will probably stay that way
I excluded insurance and financial stocks from the stock screen you
see in the table above. Right now, it's hard to make a case for
stocks in either of these sectors. I also eliminated oil and gas
plays from the list, as they are never going to be "big multiple"
Other individual stocks are likely to perpetually sport
Dean Foods (
are all examples of companies that have simply run out of organic
growth prospects, and it's hard to know what might get growth going
again. Other companies such as defense contractors
General Dynamics (
L-3 Communications (
are buckling down for possible cuts in defense spending and few
expect that situation to reverse until our budget deficits have
We've covered some of these names recently. For example, near-term
headwinds may explain whyshares of
Ford Motor (F)
still appear cheap on a price-to-earnings(P/E) basis. [
Read my analysis here for an explanation
what I wrote
back in June still applies today. Lastly,
I recently noted
Dell (Nasdaq: DELL)
executives are well aware of their stock's dowdy valuation.
So where else does value lurk?
Jabil Circuit (JBL)
Jabil is the world's third largest contract manufacturer, making a
wide range of electronic components, devices and systems for major
tech companies like
Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO)
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM)
. It's not an especially sexy business, as Jabil and its peers need
to settle for wafer-thinprofit margins if they are to win business.
But Jabil has a plan: Slowly migrate into newer industries such as
medical devices and clean energy technology while also offering
more advanced manufacturing services -- all of which now appear to
be pushing the company onto a path of higherprofit margins.
Those efforts are already bearing fruit: Operating margins are now
rebounding at a steady clip after wilting the past five years.
Goldman Sachs believes they'll exceed 4% in the current fiscal 2011
year (for the first time in its history), and should approach 4.5%
in fiscal 2012. Throw in a forecast of rebounding sales growth, and
Jabil should become a solidearnings growth story.
Sales grew +15% in fiscal (August) 2010, and should grow by a
similar amount this year, thanks in large part to new customer wins
(to make products that carry higher margins). That should help
boostearnings per share (EPS) more than +30% this year, north of
$2. In subsequent years, sales and
growth should moderate. Assume sales growth in the +5% to +10%
range, and profit growth at twice that level. Shares, which trade
for around eight times projected 2011 profits look quite appealing
in that context.
Demand for washing machines, dishwashers and dryers has been in a
slump ever since the housing bubble was pricked. Consumers are
hanging on to them longer, fixing instead of replacing whenever
Whirlpool saw its sales slump in recent years and is only now again
back above the $18 billion revenue mark, a figure last seen in
2006. But the company is vastly different since then, with a much
leaner cost structure, better exposure to more dynamic emerging
economies and a far cleanerbalance sheet .
The numbers tell it all. Whirlpool used to generate $200 to $300
million infree cash flow when theeconomy was healthy in the middle
of the last decade. Yet free cash flow surged to $881 million last
year, thanks to a sharply lower cost structure. The company is now
expected to maintain its prodigious levels offree cash flow , even
if sales growth remains muted.
Shares may look appealing at around seven times projected 2011
profits, but they're even more attractive in the context of
projected 2011 EBITDA, trading at just four timesenterprise value .
That figure is likely to grow even more appealing as Whirlpool
looks to pay off the $1 billion in debt that it still carries.
Within a few years, the housing industry may also be back on its
feet, setting the stage for renewed top-line growth as well.
Shares of Whirlpool surged past $110 last spring on hopes of a
reboundingeconomy . More tepid economic data points since then have
pushedshares back down to $82, but a move up to $100 looks quite
feasible simply based on near-termcash flow . And when demand
starts to pick up,shares could easily move past the $120 mark --
some +50% above current levels.
Action to Take -->
The stocks I mentioned above are all good candidates, but you could
use this list as a starting point for further research. Many of
these stocks are quite cheap simply because they have not yet seen
any major benefit from the recent stabilization of the But
these "late cycle" plays look set to garner more affection in 2011,
assuming theeconomy can build a head of steam. If that doesn't
happen, these low multiples ensure that they don't have far to
-- David Sterman
David Sterman started his career in equity research at Smith
Barney, culminating in a position as Senior Analyst covering
European banks. David has also served as Director of Research at
Individual Investor and a Managing Editor at TheStreet.com. Read
Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold
positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
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