It has almost became cliché but once again it's true.
The S&P 500 is at a key technical level that investors will
want to watch carefully going into Tuesday's trading session. Some
technical setups occur long before they become critical. Wedge
patterns, for example, set themselves up long before the break out
or break down takes place.
This setup will likely resolve itself within a few days and
that's the problem with this pattern. It can set up rapidly-without
anybody noticing. Yesterday, S&P reached an intraday high of
1,596.65 before closing at 1,593.61. That's a fraction higher than
the April 11 all-time high of 1,593.37.
***See chart below.***
That is the often-bearish double top pattern. Looking at the
circles in the chart above, we can clearly see the double top.
First, let's look at what happened when the first top was
printed on April 11. When the S&P ran out of steam on that day,
sellers moved in and knocked the index down 3.2 percent to its 50
day moving average.
After it found support, buyers once again stepped in and pushed
the stock back up to what was now a resistance level-1,593.
What does all of this tell us?
The market may move sideways until the ISM Manufacturing Report
hits the market Wednesday morning. After that the ADP jobs numbers
come out on Thursday, and the monthly jobs report on Friday.
All of this data will almost certainly cause the market to break
through resistance or fail causing another pullback. As the market
moves higher, these reports are under more pressure to impress.
That's becoming increasingly difficult.
This is a mousetrap market. The trap is set and it will only
take the smallest pressure to set it off. It could rocket higher or
plunge lower but it's not likely to be a small move-especially if
Tuesday's trading session is a sideways day.
What should you do?
When the market comes to a point like this, take off your red
cape and don't try to be a hero. This is a market where hedging is
necessary. Consider protecting your longs by purchasing some SPDR
S&P 500 (NYSE:
) put options. They're ultra-cheap right now and will lower your
exposure to a market selloff.
This market is still in bull rally mode making a sell off a
likely buying opportunity rather than an adverse technical event.
The key level is 1,551. Providing the S&P holds that level, no
technical damage will occur.
(c) 2013 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment
advice. All rights reserved.
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