) is set to report third quarter 2013 results on January 10. Last
quarter, it posted a -12% negative surprise. Let's see how things
are shaping up for this announcement.
Growth Factors Past
Supervalu Inc. was badly affected by the recent economic
downturn that reduced discretionary purchases by U.S. customers.
Moreover, high inflation has proved to be a challenge for several
of its financially fragile customers.
Volatility in global and financial markets due to
uncertainties related to energy costs, difficulties in the
banking and financial sectors, falling consumer confidence and
rising unemployment rates, have all contributed to the decline in
consumer spending. Consumers are also shifting to less expensive
groceries that discounters typically provide.
Since other discounters are fighting to grab this demand,
Supervalu was forced to maintain low prices. Input costs did not
let up however, so Supervalu ended up with lower margins.
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Supervalu is
likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock
needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of
#1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here as you
will see below.
Positive Zacks ESP:
This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at 3 cents
while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is higher at 7 cents. That is
a difference of -57%.
Zacks Rank #4:
Supervalu's Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) increases the chances of a
negative surprise. We caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4
and #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement,
especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions
Other Stocks to Consider
You could, however, consider stocks like
), with Earnings ESP of 2.9% and Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) or
Procter & Gamble Company
), with Earnings ESP of 2.7% and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Our model
shows that these companies have the right combination of elements
to post an earnings beat this quarter.
About Earnings ESP
Would you like to own more stocks likely to beat their next
earnings report? And avoid stocks likely to disappoint?
If yes, then it's time you learn about the Earnings ESP score
available on Zacks.com.
KROGER CO (KR): Free Stock Analysis Report
PROCTER & GAMBL (PG): Free Stock Analysis
SUPERVALU INC (SVU): Free Stock Analysis
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.