) designs and markets casual apparel and accessories for young
adults and teens. The retailer primarily competes with
Abercrombie & Fitch
) and Urban Outfitters (
Although Aeropostale's internet & catalog business is more
profitable than Aeropostale stores (profit as a percentage of
revenues), the high revenue per square foot and high number of
Aeropostale stores means that the bulk of Aeropostale's value comes
from the stores business.
We currently maintain a $51.90 price estimate for Aeropostale's
stock, well ahead of the stock's market price.
Aeropostale's Strong Historical Performance
Aeropostale's store revenue per square foot increased from about
$550 in 2007 to about $620 in 2009, an annual growth rate of 7%.
During this period, the revenue per square foot for competitor
Abercrombie & Fitch fell from $480 to $370, while that of
American Eagle fell from $520 to $420. Aeropostale's strong revenue
performance despite economic recession can be attributed to its
innovative marketing strategies and competitive pricing.
With the economic recovery in gaining steam, Aeropostale is
pursuing strategic initiatives like enhancing its supply chain and
introducing new technology, especially for its better performing
stores. Around 20% of its stores report revenue per square foot
that is at least 30% higher than the overall Aeropostale
As the economy recovers and consumer spending picks up, we
expect revenue per square foot for Aeropostale stores to increase
towards the $700 mark by the end of our forecast period.
However, a potential pitfall for Aeropostale is its lack of
international presence. The company's lack of exposure in the
growing Asian market makes it susceptible to U.S.
economic cycles. As a result, a slowdown in consumer spending in
the future may not be offset by sales from other regions. At
the same time, Aeropostale may miss out on the chance to capitalize
early on the growing Asian market or be a late comer when it
decides to expand. (See: Aeropostale's Recession Strategy Pays
Given the positive outlook for Aeropostale's revenue per square
foot, we pose the following question:
What Percent of Aeropostale's Stock Value Comes from
See our full analysis and $51.90 price estimate
for Aeropostale stock