Two key stock market indexes reached their highest levels
since late 2007 after a four-week winning streak thanks to robust
corporate earnings reports that offset more weakness in tech
SPDR S&P 500 (
) added 1.29% to 150.25 after rising for six days straight and
four weeks in a row. It ended the week just 5% shy of its
all-time high of 157.52 from October 2007.
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (
) climbed 1.86% to 138.62 -- just a hair below its October 2007
PowerShares QQQ (
), tracking the 100 largest nonfinancial stocks on the Nasdaq,
ended the week nearly flat and 5% below its 52-week high.
All three major indexes trade above their
50-day moving averages
200-day moving averages
, indicating they're in a strong uptrend. They also sport high B
IBD Accumulation-Distribution Ratings
, which means institutional buying outweighs selling by a wide
"These types of moves can get very overbought, but we think
it's best to just hold your nose, enjoy the heights, and wait for
a series of negative divergences on the momentum charts," Mark
Arbeter, chief technical strategist at S&P Capital IQ, wrote
in a "Global Equity Research" report released Friday. "Many
times, during strong advances, the peak in daily momentum is
followed by a peak in prices weeks later. In addition, it seems
that many are sitting on their hands waiting for a pullback,
especially with the S&P 500 challenging the big round number
He believes the S&P 500 will reach 1525 to 1575 -- or $152
to $157 for SPY -- before the next pullback.
The small-capiShares Russell 2000 Index (
) andSPDR S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) have already rallied to new
highs, confirming the market's upside momentum.
"When the higher beta (more volatile) stocks and indices are
leading to the upside, the more boring and lower beta indices
tend to follow many times," Arbeter wrote.
Furthermore the cyclical, or economically sensitive, sectors
have been showing more strength against the defensive sectors,
which is typically seen in strong bull markets.
Overall, investor sentiment indicators suggest the market is
due for a rest, according to Yin Lin, an analyst at Atlanta,
Ga.-based Market Edge, a quantitative investing research
"The charts of the major indexes look a little parabolic.
While we saw buying on the dips in the prior sessions, we saw
profit-taking after the S&P 500 reached above 1500," Lin
wrote. "With stocks in overbought territory on both a short- and
intermediate-term basis and with sentiment reaching a complacency
area (Investors Intelligence % bullish reading, which reached
53.2, is at the highest level since mid-September), the market is
set up for some consolidation/pullbacks."
Credit Suisse favors buying small caps, which are being driven
by merger-and-acquisition deals, investor sentiment, attractive
valuations and retail money flows.
"Despite the strong move, the Russell 2000 index's forward
price-to-earnings ratio is just 15.2 times, in line with its
long-term average of 15.3 times and below its 2012 peak of 15.7
times and its 2010/2011 peaks of 17 times," Credit Suisse stated
in a report Friday. U.S. real gross domestic product growth of 2%
is expected this year, an economic growth rate that usually
coincides with a 23% advance for the Russell 2000. Credit Suisse
recommends overweighting tech, energy, health care and
industrials, while underweighting consumer discretionary and
staples, financials and utilities.
IShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA), tracking developed foreign
markets, lags the U.S. considerably. It's rallied an epic eight
straight weeks, rising 1.48% to 59.01. But it trades 8% below its
2011 peak and a far cry from its 2007 apex.
IShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) ended the week down
1.33% at 44.18. It still trades deeply below its 2011 and 2007
EFA, with an
IBD Relative Strength Rating
of 63 and B Acc-Dis Rating, is showing the most potential for
further upside compared with the U.S. and emerging market
indexes. Its RS Rating shows it's rising higher and faster than
63% of the market. By contrast, SPY and EEM sport RS Ratings in
the mid-50s, indicating they're right in the middle of the
Investors hammered gold and silver prices in their preference
for higher-risk assets.
Gold futures prices slipped 1.04% for the week to $1,671 an
ounce.SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) fell 0.83% for the week, after
downtrending for four weeks straight. It dropped below its
200-day average Friday, confirming a strong downtrend.
IShares Silver Trust (SLV) lost 1.95% for the week. It ended
below its 50-day line but above its 200-day, which indicates a
very weak uptrend.
Jeff Sica, founder of Sica Wealth Management in Morristown,
N.J., believes the sell-off in the yellow metal will be "short
lived" because of strong buying support at $1,650 an ounce. He
contends gold is selling off because investors expect
quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve's economic stimulus
program, will end sooner than expected. But higher prices are in
store because of strong demand from global central banks.
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