Spain And Italy ETFs Regain Downward Momentum

By Investor's Business Daily August 02, 2012, 05:19:00 PM EDT

Spain and Italy were at the forefront of a global sell-off yet again Thursday after the European Central Bank disappointed the market by not enacting new measures to deal with the debt crisis.

IShares MSCI Spain Index ( EWP ) plunged 6%, while iShares MSCI Italy Index ( EWI ) dropped 4%. Both ETFs hit overhead price resistance at their 50-day moving averages, which is very bearish. They resumed a long-term downtrend after staging a countertrend rally last week. The rally began after ECB President Mario Draghi's pledge that he would do "whatever it takes" to save the euro.

Draghi said the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and ECB may start buying Spanish and Italian bonds to bring down exorbitant interest rates. Spanish 10-year bond yields rose 0.43 percentage points to 7.17%, according to Bloomberg data.

"Draghi's comments in London meant that the Bank won't protect the eurozone right now. Instead the ECB will avert disaster only when the euro looks like it is under severe attack," Kathleen Brooks, an analyst at Forex.com, wrote in a research note.

"Since central banks hold the key to whether markets rally or sell off, the lack of ECB action at Thursday's meeting could be self-fulfilling. If it causes investors to panic and Spanish and Italian bond yields to rise sharply, it may eventually force the ECB to reactivate its bond buying program sooner rather than later."

For the EFSF to buy a country's debt, the country must officially apply for a bailout and follow a plan set by the European Union and International Monetary Fund to restore their financial health. But the indebted countries don't want to give up control or their independence. Previous austerity measures sparked massive public protests.

The ECB will eventually have to buy Spain and Italy's sovereign debt, giving private-sector bond holders a chance to sell their holdings, says David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Sarasota, Fla.-based Cumberland Advisors. But transferring the debts from one party to another will add no productivity to the shrinking economies and continue to weaken their debt structure.

"These economies are imposing additional and increasing costs that only exacerbate the downward spiral," Kotok wrote in a commentary.

Political efforts to ease monetary policy have led to "ever more reckless fiscal policies, as evidenced by ever-rising fiscal debts," says Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni research. "Could it be that government is the problem rather than the solution? I think so," he wrote in his daily briefing.

The ECB left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. The euro fell against the dollar as investors fled risk assets for safe havens in German bunds and the U.S. dollar, amplifying losses for U.S. investors in foreign markets.CurrencyShares Euro Trust ( FXE ) fell 0.33%. PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish ( UUP ), which tracks the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies, gained 0.17%.

IShares MSCI EAFE Index ( EFA ), tracking developed foreign markets, fell 1.82%.IShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) skidded 1.71%.

Market Overview

On the domestic front, the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) dropped 0.68% to 136.66.

"The market continues to grind sideways and until we see a breakout either above 1390 ($139 for SPY) or a breakdown below 1330 ($133 for SPY), there is no good trade setup for conservative traders," Chad Karnes, chief market strategist at ETFGuide.com, wrote in a client note.

If the S&P 500 fails to break above 1420 ($142 for SPY), it may mark the end of the bull market that began in March 2009, says Brian Carruthers, a market technician and founder of Brian Carruthers & Associates in Laguna Beach, Calif.

"If the market was a baseball game, we are most likely in the ninth inning of a cyclical bull market," said Carruthers. "I feel we are topping now, and certainly between now and the end of the year a new bear market will begin. The next bear market, unfortunately, will likely be more painful, than the previous one."

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) lost 0.73%.PowerShares QQQ (QQQ), a basket of the 100 largest nonfinancial stocks on the Nasdaq, gave back 0.36%.

Follow Trang Ho on Twitter @TrangHoETFs .




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, ETFs

Referenced Stocks: EFA, EWI, EWP, FXE, UUP



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