Gold versus Silver. It's a long-standing debate among
precious-metal investors as to whichcommodity is a wiserinvestment
. Both are seen as ahedge againstinflation , as the prospects of
ever-weakening currencies could send investors flocking to these
hard assets. Yet silver has an edge over gold in once crucial
aspect: It has a wide range of industrial applications and
typically sees rising demand as global industrial activity heats
Did you know that 70% of the silver mined every year is used by
manufacturing? That wasn't always the case. But in recent years, a
number of new products and devices require silver to perform basic
electric functions, such as conductivity and resistance. In fact,
the amount of silver used in consumer electronics has doubled in
the past decade. More than 20% of the roughly 1 billion ounces of
silver mined annually goes into consumer electronics devices
Gold, on the other hand, goes right into vaults or jewelry, and
never really goes out of circulation. Indeed, the world's stockpile
of gold rises every year, undermining the case as an inflation
hedge. After all, scarcity creates value, and gold is ever more
Production of silver, for its part, must continue to be mined to
keep up with demand, or the metalwill quickly become quite scarce.
Lastly, silver is a relative bargain: Gold has historically been
worth 47 times more than silver, going back to 1900, though that
ratio now stands at 52, suggesting silver is undervalued relative
to gold by roughly 10%.
Ways to invest
There are a number of silver-mining stocks to consider, but
Silver Wheaton (
is often considered to be "best of breed" in this group. Indeed,
anything you might want in a mining company can be found here,
- A path to higher production that should increase output 70%
by 2016, according to management.
- Very low production costs of just $4 per ounce.
- A sturdybalance sheet with nearly $700 million in netcash
(and another $400 million available on its credit line) that is
leading management to focus on acquisitions that can augment
- Surgingfree cash flow , which has risen from $166 million in
2009, to $320 million in 2010 and to $563 million in 2011. This
number could exceed $750 million in 2013 and hit $940 million by
2014, according to Merrill Lynch.
- Return on equity (ROE) and return on invested capital (RIOC)
on track to exceed 20% in 2012
So how do you value a stock like this? Well, North American
precious-metal mining stocks have historically traded between one
and three times thenet asset value (NAV ) of their mines, with a
30-year average of two, according to Bloomberg. Right now, Silver
Wheaton trades for 1.3 times NAV, so a move up to two represents
50% upside for this stock. If silver prices strengthen in 2013,
then thatmultiple could move above the historical average of
If you prefer to focus more squarely on silver prices and not the
silver miners, then there are multiple exchange tradedfunds (
) available. The
iShares Silver Trust ETF (
is the most popular, trading more than 10 million shares per day
and with more than $10 billion in assets under management.
Yet if you're especiallybullish on silver prices, then why
notleverage up with the
ProShares Ultra Silver ETF (
? Thisfund trades more than 1 million shares daily and moves at
twice the rate of the underlyingspot price of silver. A quick
glimpse of the stock chart for this ETF shows a fairly broad
trading range:Shares have fallen by one-third since peaking in
February and appear to have support around $46.
Risks to Consider:
Silver prices may fall if sales of consumer electronics slump
in 2013, as demand forecasts would not be met.
Action to Take -->
Silver has been largely range bound in 2012, mostly moving in a
tight $30 to $35 an ounce range. But if the globaleconomy perks up
a bit in the United States, led by China and the United States,
then silver may quickly head toward the $40 an ounce mark.
Considering silver hit almost $50 an ounce in early 2011 when the
global economy last showed signs of growth, then a move to $40
seems quite feasible.
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