Savvy short sellers know to avoid crowds. The best of them will
speak of "crowded shorts," which refer to stocks that are so
heavily shorted that they may become vulnerable to a
short squeeze
that instantly pushes them higher. A number of big-time short
sellers have told me they seek to cover their position if they see
the crowd piling in to a specific stock.
Some of them must surely be thinking about that right now. The
total number of
shares
held short rose another 6% in just the two weeks ended May 31, to
22 billion shares -- the highest level in more than a
year.
These short sellers are also keeping an eye on another factor:
the "sideways tape." This refers to a
market
that had been moving on one direction but is now moving in a
tighter range, or "sideways." Such a move often leads to a
directional market change, as one group (either buyers or sellers)
get exhausted and the other group starts to offset and eventually
overtake them.
That's where you come in. You should be looking for stocks right
now that are heavily shorted, yet show promising signs or a
turnaround
. Why? These will likely be among the first to rebound sharply when
the market turns around.
Are we seeing that right now? It's too soon tocall a market
bottom, as we don't know how events in Europe will play out, but
it's increasingly clear that U.S. stocks are finding buying
interest as the S&P 500 crosses back above its 20-day
moving average
.
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With that in mind, here are four heavily-shorted stocks that
might benefit from a powerful short squeeze.
1. Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:
CHK
)
Short sellers have had a field day with this stock. The energy
producer faces possible cash shortfalls later this year and is
saddled with a reckless
CEO
and an asleep-at-the-wheel Board of Directors.
The short interest rose from 85 million shares to 95 million
shares at the end of May. Yet since then, events have conspired to
make short sellers re-visit this crowded short. First, on June 7,
Chesapeake sold off more than $4 billion of energy distribution
assets (such as pipelines) that not only raises cash but also
reduces future capital spending needs by around $1 billion
annually. And there may be more
asset
sales to come. Consider this from analysts at Merrill Lynch: "With
asset sales likely to accelerate in coming months, we believe CHK
is one of the few companies with a tangible line of sight to
closing the gap between the current share price and theoretical
Net Asset Value
(of $31 a share)." That $31 per share value implies 75% upside for
the stock.
Second, Chesapeake's board recently received a thumbs-down vote
from shareholders, boosting the odds of major changes at the top of
the company. That move could pave the way for a sale of the
company, which would really give short sellers agitation.
2. JC Penney (NYSE:
JCP
)
Short sellers have been piling onto this retailer. The short
position rose 28% in just two weeks to 41 million shares. Yet, as
my colleague Adam Fischbaum
recently noted
, it's
already
clear to most investors that the company's efforts to eliminate
sales-based promotions and move to lower every day pricing is not
working and will need to be revised.
JC Penney has already started to sneak some promotions back in,
and is now instead focusing on the other pillar of the turnaround:
revamping merchandising efforts to imitate the best practices of
savvy marketing companies like Apple (Nasdaq:
AAPL
). Will that strategy work? It's far too soon to tell, but it seems
foolhardy to short this stock now.
3. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:
HPQ
)
CEO Meg Whitman has stumbled out of the gate in a bid to get the
company back on track. Shares have failed to rise in the nine
months since she took the corner office. Sales are likely to fall
around 3% in fiscal (October) 2012 to around $123 billion. Short
sellers have taken note, boosting the short position a hefty 32% to
47 million in just two weeks.
Yet even with many challenges in front of it, HP is still likely
to keep generating solid
cash flow
, if for no other reason than the fact the company's workforce is
likely to be 20,000 smaller a year from now. As I noted a few weeks
ago, HP still
stacks up reasonably well
compared to rival
Dell (Nasdaq:
DELL
)
.
Trading at just five times projected fiscal 2013
earnings
of $4.40 per share, value investors may look to snap up shares in a
market rebound, causing pain for short sellers.
4. AMD (NYSE:
AMD
)
I've written about this chip maker on several occasions in recent
months. Even though shares continue to lag, I still think investors
are underestimating the potential of the company's new Trinity
microprocessor. AMD continues to secure new vendor relationships
for the chip, especially in the emerging category of ultra-books,
which are the PC equivalent of Apple's MacBook.
Still, short sellers are predicting trouble ahead even after
shares have fallen more than 25% since late March. The short
interest rose another 11% in late May to 94 million shares,
representing nearly 15% of the trading
float
. That huge short position would work against short sellers if the
market is able to regain its sea legs.
Risks to Consider:
A falling market will keep these stocks under pressure, so you
need to pay attention to these stocks only when the market indeed
looks to have found a floor.
Action to Take -->
The
market cycles
in waves, rising in the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first
quarter of 2012, before slumping badly in the current quarter. The
current sideways market tells us a change may be afoot, which would
be miserable for short sellers -- but potentially very profitable
for you if you buy one of these four stocks at the right time.
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-- David Sterman
David Sterman does not personally hold positions in any
securities mentioned in this article. StreetAuthority LLC does not
hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.