If you trade a momentum strategy as I do, your discipline in
selling winners will always be more important than how you take
entries. Buying into a position is not difficult and pattern
recognition is a skill which can be learned relatively quickly;
it's just a matter of putting in the hours and having a decent eye.
Most of the emotion you experience when trading does not take place
when you buy a position; in most cases you are starting from a
Far harder is understanding when to sell, not only because you
are dealing with a whole different set of pattern recognition that
is far harder to learn, but because of the huge emotional baggage
that comes with your P&L for that position, your book as a
whole, and your history with that position. Selling well is what
separates good traders from great traders.
I want to take a few moments to talk about selling into strength
when you have a big winning position on your books, and why you
should love the fact that you will most likely never catch the
Let's walk through examples of four different positions that I
have been in over the past few years that display exactly this
[Click all to enlarge]
Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (
) was a perfect example of a blow off top that wasn't quite the
top. The arrows on all of these charts indicate where I first
entered and last exited; on most there was trading done in
The blow off top in GGAL was news driven, but it was a classic
"throw in the towel" move by the shorts who were numerous in this
stock at the time. With a very large position and unrealized profit
at the time, I walked away satisfied that I had taken the lion's
share of the gains out of this one.
But after regrouping, the stock moved yet higher. This will
happen from time to time when your positions experience blow off
tops; it should not be something that concerns you. You've got to
be able to recognize a blow off top from any other regular move the
stock may make northward.
These are examples of just that. GGAL has since made a few
higher highs than where I sold it, but for the most part has been
stagnant and will be for a while. It does not make sense to own
these stocks for a good while after they experience these
Radware (RDWR) experienced this move based on a buyout rumor. I
actually exited this stock during a live
TV show in the afternoon. I had zero clue what had just taken place
fundamentally, but knew that it was time to take my chips off the
table. RDWR has since made a higher high, but for the most part has
stagnated and will for a while longer.
Selling into moves like that is never a bad idea; yes, the
company is still a great company and yes, the stock may still move
higher -- but your opportunity cost in owning it will kill your
portfolio and tie up capital that can be better used elsewhere.
VirnetX (VHC) is one that experienced a class blow off top, and
then got smashed a few weeks afterwards. Remember that even blow
off tops can be a process -- another trip back to the highs is not
abnormal -- but you need to keep your fingers off that trigger to
reengage yourself in the position. VHC spent a lot of time
consolidating back towards the 200-day moving average, at which
time it broke its downtrend line and saw a large volume spike.
This is an example of a stock that you did want to reenter at
that time. Take a few seconds to review how the VHC chart differs
greatly in the months after the blow off top from the previous two.
Notice also how GGAL may be setting up for a similar second move as
Lastly, Travelzoo (TZOO). This is probably the best example of a
blow off top that was greatly exceeded, but which is now showing
its true stripes. That second red arrow shows where I said to sell
your stake. The stock had churned at the top on high volume and
then undercut the previous day's low -- a classic blow off top. But
a few weeks later, TZOO earnings blew away the street and the stock
surged once again. But it was already obvious that the big money
had started selling into this name. If you hung on for that last
bit, congratulations, but my best judgment says that if you were
involved then, you're probably still involved now and have given it
The easy money had already been made before the announcement,
and your tape-reading skills should have gotten you out of this
one. Yes, it went higher, but the odds were that the trend would
not continue. Although I like the company a lot, this is a stock
that you are not going to want to get involved with for a while
now. There is a real mess up there regarding who owns what and at
what price; the stock won't chew through it easily.
I hope these examples of how I exited these positions are
useful. Remember, the point is not to catch the top, it is to take
the lion's share of the gains out of the middle and redistribute
capital to better opportunities. This isn't a competition to see
who can make the most on one position; it is a game of managing
risk and allocating capital to places where your odds for success
are the best.
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