ETF investors dumped high-growth, speculative funds and dove
into safe haven Treasuries Wednesday as anti-austerity uprisings
in Greece and Spain suggested that more central bank stimulus
cannot control Europe's financial crisis.
IShares MSCI Spain Index (
) gapped down 3.10%, leading the global sell-off. It's given back
all of the prior week's gains. But it's still trading above its
50- and 200-day moving averages, which shows the uptrend remains
intact. Spanish bond yields rose to 6% for the first time in
months. Protesters contend the government's tax hikes and
spending cuts will only deepen the recession and 25% unemployment
rate. The country is set to announce its 2013 budget
"The actions of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will determine
the strength of the current sell-off as any perceived delays will
have that uncertainty weight continue to determine direction,"
wrote Andrew Taylor, a market strategist at GFT. "Any revolt by
its people will make the transition of a country reliant upon
bailouts very difficult and uncertain. The bigger the noise, the
bigger the safe-haven trading plays."
Global X FTSE Greece 20
) fell for a third day straight, sliding 0.34%. A protest in
Athens drew 60,000 people.
IShares MSCI EAFE Index (
), tracking developed foreign markets, fell 0.99%.
IShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (
) shed 0.46%.IShares FTSE China (
), off 0.94%, broke below its 50-day moving average, confirming
it's back in a downtrend. Its 50-day line trade was already
trading below its 200-day line, which is very bearish.
"Stimulus is not working on markets because they know more
investment and debt (are) not the answer but the problem," said
Carl Delfeld, founder of PacificRimConfidential.com. "China
already has excess industrial capacity and its manufacturing
index is down eight months in a row."
Treasury ETFs,Vanguard Extended Duration (EDV) rose 1.74% and
Pimco 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S.Treasury Index (ZROZ) gained
"Investors are beginning to realize that perhaps stocks have
been running higher than the fundamentals dictate, and are now
cashing out of long positions to increase their cash positions,"
Carlos Guillen, an analyst at WStreet.com in New York City,
Where To Invest Now
In his latest note to clients, Carl Delfeld recommended
buyingMarket Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) because of its low
price-to-earnings ratio of 5.7. It lost 1.52% Wednesday. It's
returned 8.86% year to date and 7.07% in the past year vs. 7.89%
and 11% for EFA.
"Russia, as a Pacific Rim nation, is stepping up its trade and
investment outreach to countries such as China, South Korea and
Japan," Delfeld wrote. "In fact, over the past five years,
bilateral trade with Japan has already doubled and trade with
South Korea has tripled. Russia's trade with China is now 60%
higher than with Germany."
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