Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on
Buzz & Banter
I'm learning to fly, but I ain't got wings. Coming down is the
It's Hump Day in Gotham and you know what that means-we're halfway
home on the weekly trek toward our requisite respite. With earnings
coming fast and furious, and market volatility picking up in kind,
there's no rest for the weary, at least not yet.
The way I see it, the series of "lower highs" (a sign of
distribution) remains intact
You will also remember
from previous missives-
The S&P Alley-Oops
-and that remains critical through a longer-term lens. Technical
resistance is now tranched between
, so where you stand is a function of where you sit (as it pertains
to your time horizon, risk profile, and stylistic approach).
Of course, nestled within our forward probability spectrum is the
potential that bad news will continue to get shrugged off; for all
could have been the sell-off, all 2.82% of it, peak-to-trough (
consistent with Camp 2 discussed yesterday
I don't believe that will prove true-remember,
there are three phases of leave
-but if we're to practice what we preach,
discipline must always trump conviction
and we should always see both sides as we continue to find our way.
- The "lower highs" discussed above.
) is making a fresh 52-week low-which is pretty amazing when you
think back to the sentiment that has surrounded this
stock-proving once again that there are two sides to every
- The two charts below help paint the technical picture. The
first is the importance of
which has held a few times (note: support gets weaker with each
- The second is the S&P trend line from the November lows,
which we're probing today. If and when either one breaks, past
support will become future resistance.
- There's been a lot of chatter about
and for good reason; the yellow metal has been crushed of late,
and the Snapper attempt yesterday was feeble at best and wreaked
of forced selling. It has to bounce, right? Well, maybe, but not
The Gold Scold
). The chart below pulls back the lens on this particular
commodity; to fully appreciate where we are, we much understand
how we got here.
) continues to take a five-finger sally to the downside-and the
insider sales window typically opens a few days
earnings, so keep that in the back of your crowded keppe.
lost 44 points from Thursday's high to yesterday's close; as
such, 22 points (where we more or less ended the session) was a
50% retracement of that decline.
(INDEXCBOE:VXO) was down 19% yesterday, right back at Bar Mitzvah
levels (13), before ramping 30% today. Even still, I tend to
steer clear of
(INDEXCBOE:VIX) options as there are better ways to play
- On Tuesday, I will be poked and prodded from 7 a.m. - 2 p.m.
as a precursor to the main event; the following Tuesday, I'm
under the knife for at least one full hip replacement. That's the
good news; the bad news? Insurance isn't what it used to be;
inflation in things we need, deflation in things we want-in