Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on
Buzz & Banter
Welcome to the back-half of August, where the trading ranks are
thinner than my hairline. As folks balance the markets with their
vacation schedules, the world's wildest reality show continues in
Here's what I'm thinking about, in no particular order.
- The stock market is sitting on the level
we spied last week
. With the underbelly of the broken November trend-line up at
we enter this week with a stair-step range of
. Below that, the S&P 200-day moving average resides at
and longer-term trend-line support arrives at
- After the worst week in the
(INDEXDJX:.DJI) this year, conventional wisdom dictates that the
tape will bounce given the proximity of support. This is
precisely why we look at the tape through a stair-step lens;
should we break below
, past support will morph into future resistance.
- I continue to sit with
a few shekels on the snake eyes
(NYSEARCA:SPY) puts), which has been either wrong or early but
defined (by the capital invested in the puts) either way.
- Back in 2007, we were proactive in
sharing our vibes on the global financial
and caught some heat for being too bearish, too early. This year,
early again, whether it's the
perception of the Bernanke Call
the devolution of social mood
, or the dependency on digital markets (
HFT, Twitter, and the like
). It won't matter until it does --
if it does
-- but this is a forum for thought provocation, so I'll continue
- Why? I continue to believe there is a chasm between
perception (all-time highs) and reality (
); what has proven elusive is the timing given the artificial
nature of the tape (HFT, Fed). It's frustrating on a few levels
and I'm not immune, which is one of the reasons why I've loosened
my grip on the handlebars this summer.
- The only thing shifting faster than the financial realm,
quite possibly, is the media realm. The Chinese have a saying
(which is actually a curse): "May you live in interesting times."
It's a good thing I strive to view obstacles as opportunities or
it would be daunting.
- There are a few standouts today in the tech realm --
) among them. If I didn't know better, I would offer that fund
managers are feeling the performance anxiety heat and playing
ketchup through the high-beta realm.
- I am proud to be involved in an upcoming documentary on the
Money for Nothing.
If you would like to learn more about this excellent (and most
you can click here
- I watched the entire first season of
House of Cards
this weekend on
). It's no
, but it's right up there in terms of quality television series.
It was all made possible through the Apple TV that my wife picked
up last week, which is "OK," but I haven't dived deep yet.
- Market breadth is 3:1 negative. That -- and the price action
in the financials -- is the feather in Boo's cap today. Should
give way (and become resistance), he would have another feather.
His goal, quite obviously, is to turn into a peacock.
- Remember when we juxtaposed gold against the S&P and
offered that either gold should rally or the S&P should come
for sale? I've updated that chart below.
- We spied the price action in the financials out of this
morning's gate on our real-time
Buzz & Banter (
click here for a free trial
; they continue to drift, with
(C) leading the way. Support in this complex will come into play
(INDEXDJX:BKX) 62-half or so, per the chart below.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.