Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on
Buzz & Banter
The stock market started the week on an upbeat note, although it
finished well off its best levels after Speaker of the House John
Boehner backed President Obama's plan to strike Syria.
The specter of further unrest in the Middle East continues to weigh
on the collective psyche, in large part because 35% of the world's
crude oil supply emanates from that region. Of course, the
saber-rattling from Russia isn't helping as President Vladimir
Putin is demanding proof that chemical weapons were used.
I suppose the 1,400 dead bodies, many of whom were children,
The irony of ironies; 10 years after we invaded Iraq on the premise
of weapons of mass destruction-an allegation that proved false-we
are again at the precipice of military action. The US Senate is
proposing a course of action that will limit the offensive in time
and scope, a half-pregnant response that screams of "unintended
I remember 2003 like it was yesterday;
the bulls charged into the market as the statue of Saddam Hussein
fell-and they didn't look back. Some have openly wondered if
history will repeat; to that, I offer the chart below. The field
position of today's tape is drastically different than it was
then-we were cautiously on our heels, as opposed to delicately
balancing on our toes.
Of course, there are no guarantees in life and there are certainly
none in the marketplace, which is why we navigate the landscape one
stair-step at a time.
we observed that the market, through a pure technical lens, was
the early strength notwithstanding. That dynamic remains in place,
(the 200-day) providing the next tangible support.
Indeed, the bears have a window to press the downside-but if they
don't take advantage of the opportunity and demonstrate their
resolve in short order, performance anxiety (to the upside) will
percolate as year-end comes into focus.
- Miley Cyrus is the latest addition to our
Short Sale of American Icons
Moral Indignation Is Big Business
, these type of shifts are
cumulative through the lens of social mood.
Karsch Capital is the latest example
smart money going dark.
It remains to be seen if these big hitters are prescient, burned
out, or simply part of a broader rotation in
the long hard road
(that we first fingered 13 years ago) for the financial equation.
- The Jewish holidays begin tonight at sundown, which will thin
the ranks. If only I can remember if we're supposed to buy Rosh
Hashanah and sell Yom Kippur, or the other way around.
- Between high frequency trading and the heavy hand of the
government, there is no debating that the DNA of this market is
much different than it once was. The question, of course, is
whether that's a sign of danger or a progression that will take
hold whether we like it or not.
- The banks held tough yesterday in the face of downside
pressure and they remain a proxy for the broader tape.
Bank of America
) are my tells on that front.
- Good luck today, and for those observing, a healthy and happy