Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on
Buzz & Banter
Oh, I like this one... One dog goes one way, the other dog goes
the other way, and this guy's sayin', "Whadda ya want from
Global markets exhaled yesterday as hope of an amicable political
the vibes shared
after the FOMC minutes were released on Wednesday, the most likely
scenario was -- and remains -- a short-term resolution as
politicians find a middle ground that will push the debt ceiling a
few months out on the horizon.
While some argue that this is a Band-Aid on a broken bone, the
disaster scenario was perceived to have been avoided, and as that
was priced into the market, stocks had one of their best days of
The action in the credit markets yesterday supported, and some
would say drove, the equity action. This morning, however, November
and December T-bill rates are ratcheting higher, suggesting that
significant concerns remain into year-end.
Will this create yet another wall of worry for the markets to
scale? Or is this a legitimate crisis that warrants attention at
precisely the time investors have been conditioned to ignore it?
There is much to digest; let's chew through some Random Thoughts.
- The reaction to news is always more important than the news
itself; through that lens, keep tabs on
), both of which reported earnings this morning. While these
reports were "rear-view," the price action in the financial
complex is particularly forward looking.
- Thus far in 2013, the corrections have been extremely tame,
with a 7.5%, 4.8%, and the latest 4.8% pullback littering an
otherwise stellar trend higher. THE question we must wrestle with
is whether we've seen the last of them or if that's just what
they want us to think.
- The bulls will argue that the big money that is up 20%+ won't
let their gains slip away -- they want to get paid.
- The bears view the conditioned complacency -- buy the dip
every single time-- as a recipe for disappointment, if not
- Yesterday morning, we chewed through numerous technical
S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) 1670
(the 11-month trend-line) and
(the 50-day) serving as primary resistance. After yesterday's hot
popper, those levels morph into forward support.
- We knew there would be two-sided volatility surrounding a
potential debt ceiling resolution; pricing in an extension is the
"other side" of that dynamic. Ironically, a stock market rally
may quell select political ambitions, as FUBAR as that sounds.
The USA isn't scoring any points on the global
- Big beta, which has gotten smoked of late but bounced
strongly yesterday, remains a tell as it's the go-to complex for
(TSLA) remain individual proxies.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
(INDEXDJX:.DJI) bounced where it "should" have yesterday, at
least the first time. And you say charts don't matter.
- We're almost at our requisite respite; let's make it count so
we can enjoy the journey. Good luck today.