The Walt Disney Co. (
) shares are trading lower heading into the media giant's
second-quarter 2012 earnings release, expected out after the market
Analysts currently expect Disney to produce EPS of 57 cents on
revenue of $9.58 billion. Numbers compare with EPS of 49 cents and
revenue of $9.08 billion reported in the same period last year and
EPS of 80 cents on revs of $10.78 billion reported last quarter.
Disney shares rose 16.8 percent through the quarter, to $43.78 at
the end of March. The move is strikingly similar to a run made in
last year's first-quarter, when Disney shares rose 14.9 percent to
Into the numbers, as reported in March, Disney said it expected to
record an $80 million to $100 million loss from its smash-flop
"John Cater" in the quarter. For those not in the know, John Cater
is: a) about a Civil War (what an oxymoron) veteran who gets
transplanted to Mars and fights alien beings, and b) got a 7.0 out
of 10.0 rating on IMDB despite doing horribly in theaters. Maybe it
will wind up a cult classic ala "The Big Lebowski."
Some of the more notable comments on the film from IMDB users were
some saying the best part of the movie was "the end credits," or
"just before the opening scene," or "when Buzz Lightyear saved
Woody." We think that last reviewer mis-clicked a link.
Data from Bloomberg has 20 analysts at Buy, 14 with a Hold, and
none at Sell. The analyst price target average on Disney is $47,
with a low of $36 and high of $56. Over the last 52-week time
frame, Disney traded within a range of $28.19 to $44.50.
At $43.56 shares are also near their 50-day SMA of $42.85.
- Goldman Sach sees EPS of 58 cents, seeing improvement in
cable networking advertising as well as U.S. park revenue. The
firm said, "We expect accelerating cable network ad growth due to
the timing of sporting events (BCS, NBA) and strong auto
advertising where ESPN overindexes. US park revenue should
benefit from better employment trends, with Orlando resort tax
collections pointing to a pickup in demand in fiscal 2Q."
- JPMorgan sees EPS of 57 cents for the quarter. JPMorgan is
looking for the recently renewed Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSA) contract
to kick in some upside, commenting, "We expect these higher rates
to drive a modest acceleration in core affiliate growth for C2012
until a greater step up is likely seen in C2013 from the addition
of ESPN, which should be nicely accretive to profitability
(especially as ESPN's NFL renewal doesn't kick in until the
2014/2015 season). We forecast 8.5% core affiliate fee growth in
FQ2 (+12% reported incl. lower revenue deferral) vs. FQ1's ~7.5%
On parks, JPMorgan is looking for attendance growth of 4 percent
with mid-to-high single-digit spending gains. The firm said, "We
project 7.5% domestic revenue growth with 50bps margin
- Miller Tabak sees EPS of 58 cents.
- Deutsche Bank expects EPS of 55 cents. The firm recently
boosted its outlook on several key factors, including the
strength in "The Avengers" movie, Comcast exercising its A&E
put (which should add $40 million tos fiscal 2013 Cable nets
EIBT), and strong international Parks attendance and spending, as
well as fine-tuning easy Japan comps.
Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's
section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly
results within seconds of their release. You can also check out
Disney's past performance at Streetinsider's
Disney's Income Statement