Q1 Preview: Positive CS6 Data May Boost Adobe (ADBE)


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Adobe Systems (Nasdaq: ADBE) is trading higher heading into its first-quarter 2012 report, expected out after the market closes Monday.

The Street currently expects EPS of 57 cents and revs of $1.05 billion. The numbers compare with EPS of 58 cents and revs of $1.03 billion reported in the same period last year.

Shares of Adobe moved 20 percent in the quarter, to $32.89 at the end of February. The stock is up about 16 percent since the beginning of 2012.

Data from Bloomberg has 13 analysts at Buy on Adobe, 12 at Hold, and four maintaining a Sell. The Street's price target average is $34, with a low of $22 and high of $41. Adobe shares have traded within a range of $22.67 to $35.99 over the last year.

Analyst Comments

  • Goldman Sachs sees earnings of 56 cents per share and revs of $1.04 million. Goldman is slightly bullish following checks, the Efficient Frontier acquisition, and currency.

    Looking to the second-quarter, Goldman sees revenue guidance of $1.10 billion to $1.15 billion versus [its] estimate of $1.10 billion, in line with consensus and commented, "we estimate Efficient Frontier would add $20mn coupled with an incremental $80mn in revenue from the launch of CS6. We expect non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.60 to $0.65 versus consensus of $0.60.

  • Griffin Securities is looking for EPS of 54 cents and revs of $1.03 billion, saying, "we are estimating Digital Media revenues of $736 million, down 3 percent, Digital Marketing revenues of $235 million, up 10%, and Print & Publishing revenues of $54 million, up 1% (these amounts do not include the acquisition of Efficient Frontier, which closed in in mid-January or midway through 1Q12."

  • Heading into numbers, Deutsche Bank cited positive CS6 checks. On any cannibalization from subscription already in CS numbers: "We believe that possible cannibalization from subscription revenue transition is already accounted for in current Creative Suite revenue estimates with meaningful possibility for upside from our conservative product year growth estimates."

    On Creative Cloud buzz: "After attending several user events and spending time on various blogs, we are encouraged by early buzz around the Creative Cloud (release in the spring) and an apparent lack of feature fatigue. We believe that this excitement around CS6 and Creative Cloud could drive upside to our FY12 estimates."
Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release. You can also check out Adobe's past performance at Streetinsider's Adobe's Income Statement .

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

This article appears in: Investing Stocks
Referenced Stocks: ADBE

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