The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) for India Fell in November
MUMBAI, India, Dec. 19, 2013
MUMBAI, India, Dec. 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for India declined
1.2 percent in November. The index stands at 174.6 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in October and a 0.9
percent decline in September. Three of the eight components contributed positively to the index in November.
Said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "Despite somewhat stabilizing current conditions, the LEI's
persistent weakness suggests the economy will not improve much in 2014. The volatility in the LEI's six-month growth,
which has been negative since the first quarter of 2013, suggests that the economy will remain vulnerable, particularly
to changes in global conditions."
Said Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. "The decline in the LEI reinforces the view that the
imminent tapering of the monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve could call an end to the short breathing period
the Indian economy is currently enjoying, and that more policy intervention may be needed in order to avoid larger
negative effects on the economy. "
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(R) (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased
0.9 percent in November to 201.4 (2004 = 100), following a 1.3 percent decline in October and a 2.4 percent decline in
September. Three of the four components contributed positively to the index in November.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each
of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters
out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for India
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990,
this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces
LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and
the United States.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for India include:
Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
Sep Oct Nov May to Nov
Leading Economic Index 174.8 176.7 p 174.6 p
Percent Change -0.9 1.1 p -1.2 p -3.4
Diffusion 25.0 75.0 43.8 50.0
Coincident Economic Index 202.2 r 199.6 r 201.4 p
Percent Change -2.4 r -1.3 r 0.9 p -0.4
Diffusion 37.5 50.0 87.5 50.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, January 16, 2014 at 10:00 A.M. (Mumbai time)
In New York -- Wednesday, January 15, 2014 at 11:30 P.M. (EST)
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
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