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Opening View: Stocks Ready to Rally on Hopes for Encouraging Employment Data

By Schaeffer's Investment Research March 30, 2011, 08:06:50 AM EDT

Stocks are ready to extend Tuesday's rally, taking a cue from markets in Japan and across the pond. On the earnings stage, the Street is celebrating the latest figures from Family Dollar Stores (FDO - 52.40), which reported solid quarterly earnings and upped the low end of its full-year guidance. Meanwhile, Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX - 44.39) and Cephalon (CEPH - 58.75) are also in the spotlight, after the former drug maker made a hostile bid for the latter. However, the looming ADP employment report will be front and center, with investors hoping for encouraging data ahead of Friday's highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report. Ahead of the bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA ) is up about 66 points, while the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX ) is flirting with a 9.3-point lead.

On the earnings front, Family Dollar Stores ( FDO ) is in the spotlight this morning, after announcing a fiscal second-quarter profit of $123.2 million, or 98 cents per share, beating analysts' estimates by a penny per share. For the current quarter, the discount retailer projected a profit of 92 cents to 97 cents per share, in line with the Street's forecast for per-share earnings of 94 cents. In addition, the company lifted the low end of its full-year earnings guidance by 5 cents per share, to a range of $3.13 to $3.23 per share. For 2011, analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are calling for a profit of $3.12 per share. Ahead of the bell, the shares of FDO are up about 1.4%.

Meanwhile, Tibco Software (TIBX - 26.27) last night said first-quarter net profit jumped 53% to about $16 million, or 9 cents per share. Excluding items, the firm posted a profit of 16 cents per share, beating analysts' expectations by a penny. Revenue, meanwhile, grew 20% to $185.3 million, exceeding the Street's estimate for sales of $182.7 million. Furthermore, the software maker forecast an adjusted second-quarter profit of 17 to 18 cents per share -- on the low end of the Street's projections for per-share earnings of 18 cents -- and said it anticipates second-quarter revenue of $195 million to $200 million, compared to analysts' expectations for quarterly sales of $195 million. At last check, TIBX has given up 1%.

Finally, Valeant Pharmaceuticals ( VRX ) last night made a hostile bid for Cephalon ( CEPH ). More specifically, the biopharmaceutical firm's all-cash offer of $73 per share, which values Cephalon at $5.7 billion, represents a 24.5% premium to CEPH's settlement price of $58.75 on Tuesday. Cephalon said it's considering Valeant's offer, and advised shareholders to wait for a response from the board. In pre-market action, the shares of VRX have added roughly 16.7%, while CEPH was trading more than 30% higher.

Earnings Preview

The earnings calendar will feature reports from Acuity Brands ( AYI ) and The Mosaic Company ( MOS ). Keep your browser at SchaeffersResearch.com for more news as it breaks.

Economic Calendar

Today's economic calendar features the regularly scheduled update on crude inventories, as well as ADP's employment report for March -- which will be eyed as a potential preview of Friday's headline jobs number. On Thursday, we'll hear reports on weekly jobless claims, the Chicago purchasing managers index (PMI) for March, and factory orders for February. The Labor Department will take center stage ahead of Friday's open with its March nonfarm payrolls report. Consensus estimates are calling for an increase of 192,000, according to Dow Jones. Also on tap are construction spending for February, the ISM's manufacturing index, and domestic auto sales data for March.

Market Statistics

Equity option activity on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) saw 1,029,712 call contracts traded on Tuesday, compared to 561,462 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio fell to 0.55, while the 21-day moving average was flat at 0.62.

Volatility indices

NYSE and Nasdaq summary

Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures

Trading the News: A Contrarian View. Check out this special report from Bernie Schaeffer here.

Overseas Trading

A weaker yen helped Japanese stocks higher today, with exporters like Honda Motor (HMC) pacing the advancers. In addition, Hitachi Ltd. (HIT) skyrocketed more than 8.5% amid expectations for its Chiba Prefecture plant to return to full production sometime next month. By the close, Japan's Nikkei index soared 2.6%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.7%. China's Shanghai Composite bucked the trend, surrendering almost 0.1% as housing and coal stocks pulled back.

European markets were also in the black, with mining stocks blazing the path higher in London. Elsewhere, signs that post-earthquake production will resume soon helped France- and Germany-based automakers higher, with BMW tacking on nearly 2%. At last check, the FTSE 100 has advanced 0.5%, France's CAC 40 is up 0.9%, and Germany's DAX has soared 1.6%.

Overseas markets

Currencies and Commodities

The U.S. dollar is relatively flat this morning, as the U.S. Dollar Index was seen hovering around 76.25. Elsewhere, crude futures are trading slightly lower, giving back some of Tuesday's gains. In electronic trading, the May crude futures contract has fallen about 0.4% to flirt with $104.34 per barrel. Finally, gold futures have bounced back, adding 0.2% to linger near $1,420.70 an ounce.

Currencies and commodities

Unusual Put and Call Activity:

For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations .

Unusual options activity - puts

Unusual options activity - calls

Every morning, our research staff analyzes the prior day and the overnight markets, and monitors the morning wires to give you an accurate preview of the day to come. If you enjoyed today's edition of Opening View, sign up here for free daily delivery, straight to your inbox, before the opening bell.




The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Options

Referenced Stocks: AYI, CEPH, FDO, MOS, VRX



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