By
Russ
Koesterich
:
Executive Summary
Demographics exert a significant influence on both economies and
financial markets, an impact that will grow in the coming years.
The graying of the developed world is hitting an inflection point
and is forecast to accelerate. While we don't necessarily envision
some of the more dire predictions-an aging society does not
necessarily lead to generational war-an unprecedented shift in
demographics is likely to impact everything from economic growth to
equity multiples.
Absent significant changes in immigration policy or retirement
age, most developed countries will see slower growth in the labor
force as more people retire. All else equal, slower growth in the
working age population-and in some cases actual shrinkage in the
work force-should translate into modestly slower economic
growth.
From an investment standpoint, there are at least three
implications:
1) Historically, slower growth and less demand for capital have
been associated with lower real interest rates, suggesting that an
eventual rise in real rates may be more tempered than many analysts
expect.
2) Equity multiples in developed countries are likely to remain
low relative to their historical averages, suggesting that further
gains will need to be predicated on earnings growth rather than
higher multiples.
3) Slower growth countries are likely to trade at lower
valuations versus faster growing economies, suggesting that the
historical premium that developed markets have enjoyed relative to
emerging markets is likely to compress over time.
All of the above implies that in an aging world growth is likely
to command a premium. Among the developed countries, US
demographics appear better than virtually any other developed
country. However, they are still generally much worse than emerging
markets. To the extent that demographics drive growth, investors
can consider equities in Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia and the
Philippines. At the same time, we believe investors should avoid
Japan at all costs.
Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work. I
want to achieve it through not dying.
-- Woody Allen
Death is not only predictable in the individual sense, but also
in the aggregate. Demographic predictions are usually an exception
to the rule that long-term forecasts should be treated with healthy
skepticism. Birthrates and mortality tables provide a surprisingly
accurate view of what a population will look like in 10, 20, or 30
years. As a result, on this topic we know one thing with about as
high a degree of precision as is possible in the social sciences:
over the next several decades, most of the developed world and
China will age at an unprecedented rate.
In considering the magnitude of the change, it is important to
note that this trend has been in place for a long time. In 1900,
life expectancy at birth was 47, the median age was 22.9 and only
4.1% of Americans were over 65.[1]Today, 15% of Americans are over
65.
While the trend toward an older population has been in place for
decades, the pace is set to increase. Thanks to a relatively high
birthrate and immigration, the trend will be somewhat gentler in
the United States. That said, even in the United States, the
proportion of elderly will rise to unprecedented levels. In the
United States, the median age will rise from 35.5 in 2000 to nearly
40 by 2025.
The increase in median age in the United States is relatively
modest, but the economic impact of an aging population is still
likely to be severe given the precarious state of US entitlement
programs. Today, there are roughly five working age Americans per
retiree. Over the next decade that ratio will slip to 4-to-1 and by
2030 will fall to nearly 3-to-1 (see Figure 1). In other words, the
proportion of retirees to working age adults will rise to roughly
35%, and in the process put an enormous strain on the economy and
government finances.
In other parts of the world, the aging will be even more acute.
In Europe, by 2025 the median age will have risen to over 45. Worst
of all will be Japan. By 2025, the median age of a Japanese citizen
will be 50. Ironically, although Japan will clearly be the oldest
country, the nation that is graying the fastest is an emerging
market, China. Looking at the change in the median age between 2000
and 2050, China will age faster than any other large country (see
Figure 2).
Work Till You Drop
While all the societal implications of the aging of the world's
population are unclear, there is almost certain to be a significant
economic impact. To start, aging populations will put an enormous
strain on government resources, as the number of individuals
receiving pensions and state-supported healthcare surges. As
mentioned above, the problem is particularly acute in the United
States. The unfunded nature of the US entitlement system and the
aging of its population will intersect to put an existential strain
on the US pension and federally funded healthcare systems.
US demographics are by no means the worst in the world, but in
many ways the United States is uniquely unprepared. To start, the
United States spends more money-both per capita and as a percentage
of GDP-on healthcare than any other country in the world.
Furthermore, pension and healthcare systems were designed at a time
when the demographic ratios were far different. At the time Social
Security was enacted, there were approximately 25 workers per
retiree. Today, the number is closer to three.
In addition to fewer workers, Americans are both retiring
earlier and living much longer than previous generations. The
combination of these trends-an aging population, earlier retirement
and longer life expectancy-implies that the US programs are
particularly vulnerable, even when compared to other developed
countries. For example, without a change to current laws, federal
spending on Medicare and Medicaid combined will grow from roughly
5% of GDP today to almost 10% by 2035 (see Figure 3). If left
unchecked, Social Security and Medicare-along with interest on the
debt-will eventually crowd out all other government spending.
Interestingly, this same situation does not hold for all
developed countries. For example, Australian demographics are
likely to be worse than the United States, but given the nature of
the country's pension system the Australians are not facing any
large unfunded liabilities.
In Australia, the country has revamped its retirement system so
as to minimize the unfunded liability through what is known as the
superannuation retirement system. Employers are required by law to
pay an additional amount of employees' salaries and wages
(currently 9%) into a fund. Funds can be accessed when an employee
meets conditions of release. After a decade of compulsory
contributions, Australian workers have more than US$1.2 trillion,
more money invested in managed funds per capita than any other
economy.[2]So while Australia faces a similar demographic problem,
it is arguably much better prepared for these changes than the
United States.
Fewer Workers, Slower Growth
In the March unemployment report, investors were understandably
frustrated by the deceleration in net job formation. Another part
of that report, which received less attention but may be of more
significance over the long term, was the drop in the labor force
participation rate, which is now at its lowest rate since 1981 (see
Figure 4).
The drop in the participation rate appears to have accelerated
since the financial crisis as frustrated job seekers eventually
give up and leave the labor force. However, while the trend has
accelerated, its origins go back more than a decade.
Labor force participation peaked in the United States in 1998 at
67.2%. Since then, it has fallen by approximately 3.7 percentage
points, recently hitting the lowest level since the early 1980s
when women were first entering the labor force in large numbers.
This drop in the participation rate has coincided with a general
slowdown in US growth. At the time participation peaked in the
mid-to-late-1990s, the United States was growing at an average
annual rate of 4.3% (average growth from 1996 to 2000). Since 2000,
US real GDP has averaged roughly 1.7% annualized.
Slower US growth can be attributed to a number of factors, not
the least of which are the side effects of the bursting of two
bubbles, first in stocks and then real estate. However, it is hard
to argue that the decline in labor force participation has not
exacerbated the slowdown in growth. Over the long term, a country's
secular growth rate is a function of the growth in the work force
plus the growth in productivity.
The relationship between economic growth and changes in the
participation rate has been evident for most of the post-World War
II period. Historically, annual changes in the labor force have had
a strong relationship-they explain roughly 25% of the annual
variation in growth-with changes in real GDP (see Figure 5). To the
extent labor force participation continues to decline, growth in
the United States is likely to face a modest headwind.
We can get a glimpse of what may be in store for the United
States by looking at Japan, where in a somewhat frightening
parallel, economic growth has averaged 0.9% annually over the past
two decades, and just 0.7% in the 2001 to 2010 period. Obviously,
this trend has coincided with a number of factors, but it has
almost certainly been influenced by the rapid aging in Japan.
In the case of Japan, this trend is likely to get even worse.
While per capita growth may stay the same at around 1% to 1.5%,
Japan's population will shrink at an even faster rate in the
future. With the productive population declining by 1.1% annually,
versus just 0.6% during the 2000s, this suggests future overall
trend growth will be just 0% to 0.5%.[3]
To the extent that a higher proportion of older Americans
results in diminishing participation in the labor force, the United
States may face a similar although less severe headwind. US
demographics look much better than Japan's, but the basic
relationship holds. If an aging population implies fewer workers
there will be some modest lowering of the long-term secular growth
rate for the United States-and many other developed countries.
Real Yields, Low for Long?
A modestly lower secular growth rate has many implications. One,
which seems to go hand in hand with slower growth, is lower real
yields. Historically, both in the United States and in other
developed countries, the slower growth associated with an aging
population and less participation in the workforce has been
accompanied by lower real yields.
In the United States, nominal rates have been falling for three
decades, a period that has coincided with a gradual aging of the
population. Accordingly, there has been a strong correlation
between demographics and interest rates. As the population has
aged, rates have dropped (see Figure 6).
There was another important trend going on throughout this
period: a secular decline in inflation. Arguably, that has been a
much more powerful driver of the drop in yields than any change to
the country's demographics.
However, even when you control for inflation, the basic
relationship between demographics and interest rates remains
exceptionally strong. Looking at real, or inflation-adjusted,
yields produces a similar result. Even after accounting for the
impact of falling inflation, changes in demographics explain more
than 65% of the variation in yields (see Figure 7).
Aging may impact real yields through a variety of mechanisms. As
previously demonstrated, as a population ages and work force
participation drops, economic growth tends to slow. All else equal,
slower growth tends to be associated with lower real rates. An
aging population is also likely to be associated with less demand
for capital, which should also exert a modest downward pressure on
real rates.
This latter explanation appears to extend to other countries.
Research into Japanese interest rates by the Bank of Japan ((BOJ))
also suggests that an aging population will exert a significant
impact on interest rates. The model by the BOJ predicts that a
decline in workers-to-total population ratio lowers the real
interest rate and concludes that demographic changes impact the
equilibrium, or natural, real interest rate through less demand for
capital.[4]
This theory is also supported by a similar study by the European
Central Bank ((ECB)), which found that demographic changes
contribute over time to a decline in the equilibrium interest rate,
although the impact is slow and not visible over shorter time
frames.[5]
We have argued in previous pieces that real rates in the United
States look too low, especially after taking into account the
country's deteriorating fiscal picture. While we still believe that
real rates are likely to rise over the long term, the findings from
the BOJ and ECB-coupled with what appears to be a similar dynamic
witnessed in the United States-suggest that the backup in yield may
be more modest than predicted by models that ignore
demographics.
Anyone Want to Buy a Stock?
Just as over the long term a country's growth rate is driven by
growth in the work force and productivity, over the long term
corporate profits are driven by real economic growth. Margins can
expand or contract for prolonged periods, but over the very long
term they have generally tended to mean revert, leaving revenue
growth as the chief driver of aggregate corporate earnings. While
accessing faster growing emerging markets may provide a tailwind
for revenue, for companies with revenues that are dependent on US
consumption, earnings growth will ultimately be a function of
overall US economic growth.
All else equal, slower economic growth suggests that revenues
from domestic operations are likely to grow slower than in the past
(see Figure 8). As the accompanying chart illustrates, over the
past 50 years economic growth has been the principal driver of US
corporate profitability, explaining more than 35% of the variation
in profits.
Slower growth caused by an aging population may have a
secondary, but perhaps even more pernicious, impact on equities: it
may lower multiples. In a 2010 paper, Tim Bond of Barclays Capital
argued that demographics tend to drive equity multiples based on
the notion that as investors age demand for equities falls, thus
lowering the amount investors are willing to pay for a dollar of
earnings.Mr. Bond predicts that forward projections suggest that US
P/E should fall to around 11x by around 2015 before recovering
slightly to 12x by 2020.[6]
To the extent that aging populations in developed countries do
indeed post modestly lower growth rates, there is a second reason
we may experience lower multiples going forward. Our own research
demonstrates that growth rates, both relative to other countries
and relative to a country's own history, impact valuations.
Historically, countries that grow faster have commanded higher
multiples, while slower growing countries typically trade at a
discount (see Figure 9).
As the above figure illustrates, there is roughly a 0.50
correlation between growth rates and multiples. While this average
holds for both developed and emerging market countries, it is
instructive to note that for certain fast growing emerging markets
the relationship can be much stronger. For example, China's and
India's correlations are much higher at 0.80 and 0.72,
respectively. The lesson being, for countries perceived as growth
stories, growth is both more rewarded and more penalized.
The relationship between growth and multiples has two
implications for investors. First, while equities still appear
reasonably priced and probably cheap relative to bonds, equity
returns may be more muted to the extent that multiples do not fully
revert back to their long-term average. Under this scenario,
investors will have to rely on earnings growth and dividends,
rather than rising multiples, to drive future returns.
Second, in a world in which developed markets slow, we would
suggest that their multiples are likely to fall relative to
emerging markets, with slower growth countries suffering the worst.
This suggests that the traditional premium that developed markets
have commanded versus emerging markets-historically about 35%-is
likely to contract over time.
Age vs. Youth
Given all of this, what countries are likely to enjoy the most
favorable demographics and which ones look the most dangerous? Not
surprisingly, emerging markets tend to have younger populations. In
particular, most of Latin America and Asia look particularly good
from a demographic standpoint (see Figure 10). Both Brazil and
Mexico have favorable demographics, with the percentage of the
population under 15 3.50 and 3.80 times that of the percentage over
65, respectively. However, for investors looking for the best
demographics in the larger emerging markets, it is hard to beat
Asia. In Indonesia, the under 15 set outnumbers those over 65 by
more than 4-to-1, in India the ratio is nearly 5-to-1 and in the
Philippines it is an astounding 7.5-to-1.
The notable exception among emerging markets is China. While
China's demographics look favorable compared to Japan, Europe and
even the United States, the Chinese population is set to age much
faster than several of its emerging market competitors, most
notably India, Brazil and Indonesia.
China's demographics can be blamed on several factors, starting
with the country's notorious one-child policy. As a result of this
policy, China's fertility rate is a relatively low 1.58, below some
developed markets including the United States. In parts of China,
the birthrate is even lower. Shanghai reported a fertility rate of
just 0.60% in 2010, perhaps the lowest in the world. As a result,
over the next few decades, the median age will rise sharply in
China to 48.7 by 2050; meanwhile, the population will fall slightly
from 1.34 billion in 2010 to just under 1.30 billion in
2050.[7]
While China's demographics look poor compared to the other
emerging markets, Europe and Japan look awful compared to everyone.
Japan in particular stands out as a demographic nightmare. A
combination of low fertility rates, no immigration and rising
longevity make Japan an outlier, even when compared with the rest
of the developed world. The percentage of Japanese over 65 is
already more than 25%, the highest in the world. While in the
Philippines the young outnumber the old by 7.5-to-1, in Japan the
old outnumber the young by more than 2-to-1.
(Click to enlarge)
Conclusion
The inevitability of gradualness cannot fail to be
appreciated.
-- Sidney Webb
Demographics are like genetics; it would be a gross exaggeration
to suggest that they are all that matters, but they will exert a
subtle but persistent influence on a country's economic well-being.
Given the long-term nature of demographic trends, it is worth
taking note.
For investors, there are several implications. In the absence of
a productivity surge-or the even more unlikely possibility of a
major change in immigration policy-trend growth in developed
countries is likely to slow. This effect should be more pronounced
in Europe and Japan than in the United States. Instead, the
principal risk for the United States revolves around government
spending. Without significant reform, the strain on entitlement
spending in the United States is likely to be greater than in other
developed countries due to the persistent failure to tackle
unfunded liabilities.
The second likely effect revolves around interest rates. While
real rates should rise in the coming years, the rise may be slower
and gentler than some expect as demand for capital slows. Third,
equity multiples may not revert back to their long-term average in
many developed countries. This also suggests that the historical
discount between emerging market and developed market stocks is
likely to narrow over time.
Investors looking to mitigate or avoid the impact of aging
populations should consider raising their allocation to younger
emerging markets-particularly India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and
the Philippines-and to companies that generate a growing percentage
of their sales from these regions. Finally, if there were not
enough reasons already, investors should probably avoid long-term
positions in Japanese stocks.
[1] Kotlikoff, Laurence and Scott Burns,
The Coming Generational Storm
(MIT Press, 2004) 2.
[2] Wikipedia, (accessed October 20, 2011).
[3] Bank of Japan Monetary Affairs Department,
The Effects of Demographic Changes on the Real Interest Rate
in Japan
, Daisuke Ikeda and Masashi Saito, February 2012.
[4] Ibid.
[5] European Central Bank Working Paper Series,
Interest Rate Effects of Demographic Changes in A
New-Keynesian Life-Cycle Framework
, No. 1273/December 1970.
[6] Barclays Capital,
Equity Gilt Study,
2010.
[7] "China's Achilles heel,"
The Economist
, April 21, 2012.
Disclosure:
I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to
initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. For a complete
discussion of risks and other important information regarding this
content, please go
here
.
See also
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on seekingalpha.com