By Samuel Lee
Momentum is the tendency for performance to persist. Barring
perhaps Treasury bonds and Japanese stocks, momentum has been found
in nearly every market and asset class studied. Its prevalence is
the most convincing refutation of the efficient-markets hypothesis.
In partnership with the Arizona State Retirement System, iShares
earlier this year launched the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor(
) , another sign that momentum strategies are becoming more common
The fund is promising. It charges a slender 0.15% expense ratio.
Its secondary market liquidity is decent, no doubt helped by ASRS'
$100 million seed contribution to the fund. Most important, its
exchange-traded fund wrapper and its sensible index construction
methodology put to rest the biggest objection to momentum
strategies: They cost too much in taxes, transaction costs, and
management fees. MTUM's ETF structure mitigates some of the tax
bite. And by dealing in today's highly liquid large- and mid-cap
stocks, its frictional costs won't likely amount to much.
Why It Works
There are lots of stories out there that seek to explain why
momentum exists, but the most convincing appeal to behavioral
biases. The brain is a wonderful machine, but it uses a lot of
shortcuts or heuristics. In markets, these shortcuts can lead us to
biased decisions. For one, we're slow to adjust to new information,
"anchoring" our adjustments to old values. And we prefer to sell
winners to lock in gains and hold on to losers with the hope of
eventually breaking even, a bias called the "disposition effect."
The combination of the two prevents stock prices from quickly
adjusting to new information, leading to performance
More powerfully, when we observe price trends, we extrapolate
them into the future, and when we see others riding the wave, we're
tempted to join in. The bandwagon effect can send prices to
extremes. Obviously, markets don't stay crazy forever. At some
point, the fundamentals kick in, and momentum-driven movements
So, if you sell to lock in gains, don't want to sell losers
because you're waiting to break even, get caught up in crowd
psychology, or allow irrelevant information to affect your
estimates of an asset's fair value--congratulations, you help make
There's no shame in it. Momentum doesn't originate from mania
but begins with skepticism. Consider Apple(
) . As Apple kept posting blockbuster results, sober analysts
consistently underreacted to the evidence that Apple's growth
trajectory was steeper than they expected. Apple always looked
expensive--until it didn't. By 2012, after years of being wrong,
many skeptics capitulated. Some became true believers. It's around
this time that the slowpokes began showing up droves to throw
fistfuls of cash at
, and the bandwagon effect took hold. Then, as manias are wont to
do, it imploded.
When there is stupidity, there's a profit opportunity. I admit
there's something unsavory about the way momentum strategies go
about it. By purposefully investing with the crowd, the momentum
investor often helps push prices away from fair value and profits
by selling to the greater fool. The strategy is a favorite of
s because they love the commission income from churning their
clients' accounts. Despite my misgivings, the evidence for the
strategy's efficacy is so overwhelming it makes sense to apply it
to one's portfolio provided one can do so cheaply. MTUM offers such
How It Works
MTUM tracks the MSCI USA Momentum Index, which applies a twist to
the traditional momentum strategy. In most academic studies,
momentum is measured by 12-month trailing price return, excluding
the most recent month, for 11 months of price return. The most
recent month is excluded because stocks exhibit short-term mean
reversion: The best-performing stocks in the past month often
underperform the subsequent month.
The MSCI version for each stock measures six- and 12-month price
momentum, excluding the most recent month. However, unlike the
academic studies, the six- and 12-month windows are just moved back
a month: The six-month signal is calculated by using months two to
seven, the 12-month signal uses months two to 13. The returns are
divided by the annualized standard deviation of the stock's
trailing three-year returns. Then they're converted to z-scores, a
standard method for normalizing data into a "bell curve"
distribution. The z-scores of the six-and 12-month signals are
averaged to produce a final momentum score, which is multiplied by
the stock's market cap to come up with a final weight.
The overall effect of looking at risk-adjusted return and
averaging two signals is to ensure the consistency of returns.
Research has indicated that stocks that smoothly rise or fall are
more likely to exhibit momentum than stocks that suddenly rise or
Typical of MSCI, the index is rebalanced twice a year, which
keeps turnover down but weakens the fund's momentum tilt.
Intriguingly, the index has a conditional rule that checks each
month to see whether the current month's volatility has steeply
risen versus the past month's volatility. If the condition is met,
the index rebalances but only using the six-month signal.
This rule was implemented to protect against momentum crashes.
During bear markets, momentum strategies switch to defensive stocks
and miss out on the subsequent recoveries led by cyclical stocks.
The two worst periods for momentum in the United States occurred
during the Great Depression and the 2008 financial crisis.
The back-tested returns look good. From the index's hypothetical
start in May 1994 to the end of April 2013, it beat the MSCI USA
Index by 3.45 percentage points annualized. This is too good to be
true. I highly doubt the strategy will produce such excellent
results in the future. However, given the weight of the evidence, I
think the odds favor MTUM earning some momentum premium in the
future. Even if it's nil, the fund is so cheap it's unlikely to
hurt you much.
: Morningstar, Inc. licenses its indexes to institutions for a
variety of reasons, including the creation of investment products
and the benchmarking of existing products. When licensing indexes
for the creation or benchmarking of investment products,
Morningstar receives fees that are mainly based on fund assets
under management. As of Sept. 30, 2012, AlphaPro Management,
BlackRock Asset Management, First Asset, First Trust, Invesco,
Merrill Lynch, Northern Trust, Nuveen, and Van Eck license one or
more Morningstar indexes for this purpose. These investment
products are not sponsored, issued, marketed, or sold by
Morningstar. Morningstar does not make any representation regarding
the advisability of investing in any investment product based on or
benchmarked against a Morningstar index.
This article was published in the May 2013 issue of
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