Due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, the monthly
payrolls report, factory orders, and construction spending were not
released as scheduled last week. Alternative release dates have not
Also on hold are scheduled economic reports this week on the
U.S. trade balance, Job Openings and Labor Survey (JOLTS),
wholesale inventories, the import price index, the monthly budget
statement, Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales or business
Despite the news blackout from most government agencies, there's
still plenty of reports available, including today's 2 p.m. ET
release of minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee
meeting three weeks ago. Also on tap this week are private reports
on consumer credit, the National Federation of Independent Business
(NFIB) small business optimism index, weekly jobless claims, and
the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment.
Separately, the schedule of Federal Reserve speakers will also
10:00AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) spoke
President Evans has been a strong supporter of accommodative
monetary policy in the past. He recently stated that in his opinion
asset purchases have been effective, but that forward guidance will
be the primary policy tool in the future. He estimated that the
ultimate size of QE3 might reach $1.25 trillion, smaller than the
roughly $1.5 trillion we expect.
02:00PM Minutes from September 17-18 FOMC meeting
The minutes from the September FOMC meeting will be particularly
interesting, given the Committee's unexpected decision not to taper
Subsequent to the meeting, participants described the decision
as a close call. Investors will be particularly attentive to any
discussion of what criteria the Committee will use to determine
when it would be appropriate to reduce the rate of purchases, and
whether the previous guidance that purchases might be completed in
mid-2014 remains appropriate.
In addition, discussion of how the forward guidance might be
enhanced in the future, which was alluded to by Chairman Bernanke
in the post-FOMC press conference, will be of great interest.
Finally, look for any further details on the thinking behind the
new fixed-rate full-allotment reverse repo facility.
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