MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

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06/23 08:32 CDT IEA: Countries to release 60M barrels of oil

   


IEA: Countries to release 60M barrels of oil

    

PARIS ( AP ) -- The International Energy Agency says 28 countries have agreed to

release 60 million barrels of crude to the market to offset disruptions

prompted by Libya's war.

 

The Paris-based agency said in a statement Thursday that it made the move

because the normal increase in demand over the summer "will exacerbate the

shortfall further."

 

It also warned that the tight oil market "threatens to undermine the fragile

global economic recovery."

 

The countries will make 2 million barrels a day available from their emergency

stocks over a period of 30 days.

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06/23 07:33a CST  DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 23

    For the week ended Jun 16, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1. 

               wk's net chg             total
               in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales
              this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next
yr
wheat           661.3      0.0    7755.2    5853.4   6300.5     
0.0
corn            410.8    120.3   44509.0   48056.9   8649.6  
4590.5
soybeans        -32.1    236.1   41824.8   39022.3   4007.0  
7032.1
soymeal           9.5     27.5    7173.4    8875.8   1207.5   
277.0
soyoil            6.0      0.0    1233.6    1336.4    139.2     
4.5
upland cotton    -1.1    -33.1   14446.0   12409.7   1944.9  
5289.5
pima cotton       0.1      1.0     523.8     677.2     60.5   
321.8
sorghum          79.3      0.0    3312.7    3335.4    630.7    
59.3
barley            0.0      0.0       1.9      16.9      1.0     
0.0
rice             76.5      0.0    3738.0    3649.0    470.2     
9.1

 

WHEAT

General Comments:   Futures closed lower yesterday in trading related to ideas of better conditions in Europe and fears of competition from cheap exports from Ukraine and Russia.  Russia and its neighbors are starting to offer Wheat and are usually the cheapest sellers in the world, but this might now be part of the market.  The drought in Texas and Oklahoma and other weather worries continue to provide support.  Midwest and Mid South Wheat crops have been going downhill due to too much rain, and planting of Spring Wheat crops has been a big problem in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.  More rain was seen in the Dakotas and Minnesota yesterday.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue.  More rain is forecast for Europe in the next few days.  Charts show that the trends are down.

Overnight News:   Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see precipitation through this weekend.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation through the weekend.   Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady to firm for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady to firm for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  Egypt bought 240,000 tons of Worl Wheat, including 120,000 tons of US SRW.  Japan bought 103,252 tons of world Wheat overnight.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 654 July.  Support is at 617, 608, and 584 July, with resistance at 656, 660, and 664 July.  Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives.  Support is at 754, 752, and 716 July, with resistance at 775, 790, and 810 July.  Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 685 July.  Support is at 837, 807, and 790 July, and resistance is at 879, 884, and 888 July.

RICE

General Comments: Prices were a little lower in slow trading for most of the day, then saw more liquidation trading to push futures to the lows near the close.  Some forecasts for some rains in Mid South growing areas hurt the price potential, and Texas areas near Houston got beneficial rains.  World prices have been a little firmer in Asia.  Many in Thailand are holding back to see what happens in the elections next month, and Vietnam is now ready to hold back stocks from the market to help prices there.  Weather and poor growing conditions in the US remain important, but overall crop ratings improved last week to take away some of the bullish influence.  Mid South crops remain fair to good.  However, crop ratings are edging down in response to the hot and dry weather.  Texas crops appear to be mostly fair, but overall crops are holding their condition and benefited from the rains yesterday.  It has been very dry there, so irrigation is still being used.  Chart trends are mostly down for the short term. 

Overnight News: Showers and storms in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast, although rains are forecast for Texas.  Temperatures will average above normal.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 1356, 1336, and 1290 July, and resistance is at 1369, 1383, and 1385 July.

 

CORN AND OATS

General Comments:   Corn was limit down and Oats were a little lower yesterday on what appeared to be massive speculative liquidation tied to the calendar and weather and crop conditions.  Speculators seem to be leaving before the July options go off the Board tomorrow and before the July deliveries get under way next week.  Reports of strong domestic demand and export demand were noted after the recent big price break, and basis levels have been firm.  There is a lot of rain in the forecast for the Midwest for the rest of this week, but hot and dry conditions are forecast for next week.  Basis levels are stable in the country, and Gulf basis levels remain stable to firm.  Cool and wet weather in the northern Great Plains, Canadian Prairies, and parts of the Midwest continue to delay Oats development, but warmer weather this week will allow for progress.  Nearby Corn futures could still trade at or above $8.00 per bushel, especially if good weather is not seen during the rest of US growing season.  September could be the strongest month if weather remains cool and progress remains slow as crop progress is late now.  Crops near and south of Chicago look mostly good but very late.  There are a lot of holes in fields where water had been standing.  Supplies could be very tight by September.  Trends are down for now.

Overnight News:   Basis was steady to firm at the Gulf of Mexico and steady in the Midwest. 

Chart Analysis:   Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 675 and 618 July.  Support is at 659, 654, and 641 July, and resistance is at 692, 708, and 714 July.  Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 321 and 304 July.  Support is at 350, 342, and 340 July, and resistance is at 358, 361, and 371 July.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS                     

General Comments:   Soybeans and products closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation.  The selling was tied primarily to weakness in Corn and Wheat futures.  Cash markets in the interior US also remain strong as farmers do not appear too interested in selling, but products basis levels are mostly unchanged.  The weather for the rest of this week looks a little drier and warmer than what has been seen the last couple of days.  It could turn hot and dry next week.  Crops near and south of Chicago in Illinois are just emerging.  Demand does not seem that strong.  Upside price potential would still appear to be more limited than that for Corn or Wheat or Rice.  Ideas of strong production in South America and the potential for production and planted area here in the US to increase are negative, and Chinese buyers appear quiet right now.  South America has plenty of production and has been offering, but activity there seems slow.  Charts show that trends are down. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are steady at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.  Midwest basis levels were steady to firm.  USDA said that unknown destinations cancelled purchases of 452,500 tons of US Soybeans overnight.

C hart Analysis:   Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1299 July.  Support is at 1320, 1313, and 1307 July, and resistance is at 1353, 1355, and 1360 July.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 342.00, 341.00, and 340.00July.  Support is at 345.00, 343.00, and 342.00 July, and resistance is at 351.00, 355.00, and 360.00 July.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5430 July.  Support is at 5560, 5510, and 5485 July, with resistance at 5710, 5740, and 5770 July.

06/23 07:08 CDT US May soy crush 128.03 mln bu-Census
Bureau


    WASHINGTON, June 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. Census Bureau
released the following monthly data on U.S. oil mill stocks and
soybean crushings:
                                May 2011      Trade    April 2011  
  May 2010                                              est.
SOYBEAN CRUSHINGS
    Short tons:               3,841,067                 3,839,636  
 3,988,616
   Bushels (mln):                128.03       127.56       127.99  
    132.95
SOY/HULL MEAL STOCKS            374,957      407,600      442,943  
   467,677
   (short tons)
SOYOIL STOCKS                 3,173,652    3,326,000    3,342,368  
 3,468,295
   (thou lbs)
    NOTE: Figures from prior month may be revised
    Figures for year ago from Census oilseed crushings report
issued July 29,
2010.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL                                                                                                                                       

General Comments:   Canola was lower on fund selling.  Traders are starting to get ready for the StatsCan planted area report that was released today.  Ideas were that the reports will not be all that accurate as the bad weather seen in June is not to be included.  Demand seems to have dried up.  Planting progress remains very slow in Canada.  Rains are forecast for Europe again this week to improve things there.  A slow planting pace remains the primary support here.  Palm Oil was lower again as ideas of big production went against ideas of increasing demand.  Positive export data from private sources provided support.  Weakness in Chicago is hurting price action here. Trends are down. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:   Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 570.00, 553.00, and 536.00 July.  Support is at 569.00, 564.00, and 551.00 July, with resistance at 579.00, 580.00, and 583.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3100 September.  Support is at 3150, 3130, and 3095 September, with resistance at 3200, 3210, and 3240 September.

Midwest Weather:    Scattered showers and storms over the week, drier this weekend.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.

 



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.




This article appears in: Investing , Commodities

Referenced Stocks: AP

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