Futures closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative
long liquidation tied to the massive liquidation in the world
stock markets and the sharp rally in the US Dollar.
Positive export demand news remains hard to find as ideas
continue that Russia and other eastern European countries is
taking all the export business. Wheat finding its way into
feed rations in an increasing way. The current Corn weather
and the prices imply that these trends will continue.
Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma
continue, and some rain will be needed soon for planting of the
Fall crops. Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately
in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much
in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest. Crops in the
Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good
condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both
areas. Charts show that the trends are mixed.
Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great
Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation.
Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the
south, but near normal in the north. The Canadian Prairies
should get periods of light precipitation.
Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels
are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red
Winter Wheat. Iraq bought 50,000 tons of Russian Wheat.
Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 670, 664, and
658 September, with resistance at 690, 705, and 723
September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support
is at 762, 760, and 758 September, with resistance at 789, 810,
and 832 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.
Support is at 817, 808, and 806 September, and resistance is at
836, 840, and 860 September.
Prices were a little lower again yesterday in sympathy with the
selling in Corn and other agricultural markets and in sympathy
with the massive selling seen in world equities markets.
The market held well, but the harvest is going on near the Gulf
Coast is keeping the buyers cautious. Rice is starting to
head out in the Mid South so it needs cooler and wetter weather
to produce good yields and good volume. The weather could
moderate in the Mid South by early next week. It remains
hot and dry in these growing areas, and producers in Arkansas are
worried about both yields and quality. Texas and Louisiana
are actively in harvest activities now, with good yields being
reported in many parts of both states. No milling yield
reports have been heard yet. Cash markets are reported to
be firming up in Arkansas as mills try to buy the last of the
good quality old crop supplies. New crop bids have also
been firming. The charts have a weak overall appearance,
but futures are in a range for the short term.
Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast. Some
showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas the second half
of the week. Temperatures will average above normal. India
has planted 26.03 million hectares of Rice so far this year, from
24.47 million tons last year.
Trends are mixed. Support is at 1616, 1608, and 1593
September, and resistance is at 1628, 1646, and 1657
CORN AND OATS
Corn and Oats were lower yesterday on what appeared
to be speculative long liquidation tied to the massive
liquidation in the world stock markets and the sharp rally in the
US Dollar. Corn reacted to stressful conditions in southern
sections of the Midwest and held better than the other
markets. Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and
some beneficial precipitation for central and eastern areas into
next week. There have been more reports of yield loss, but
most farmers appear optimistic about pollination during the
recent hot weather as crop color remains good. Analysts
appear less enthused about production potential. We feel
that production could be about 13.07 billion bushels. Hot
conditions should remain in the south, and it should be drier,
but some forecasts are calling for some showers in these areas as
well. Corn has faded on past rally attempts to $7.00 or
higher, and has been fading once again as demand loss starts to
become an issue. Oats are being harvested, so warmer and
drier weather will enhance progress.
Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. Argentina
will permit another 600,000 tons of Corn exports for this
Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 684, 682,
and 671 September, and resistance is at 714, 721, and 729
September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 320
September. Support is at 331, 321, and 313 September, and
resistance is at 340, 346, and 350 September.
Soybeans and products were lower on speculative profit
taking tied to the massive liquidation in world stock markets and
the big rally in the US Dollar, and on forecasts for more
moderate growing conditions in the Midwest. Wetter weather
in the northern and central Midwest so far this week has aided in
crop development, but it remains very hot in the south.
Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing
conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal in
the north, but still warm in the south, and some showers and
storms in most areas into next week. Southwestern areas
should stay more stressed than the rest of the Midwest.
August is traditionally the most important development month for
Soybeans, so weather forecasts will be very important now.
Gulf basis levels were unchanged. Charts show that trends
are turning down with the better US weather.
Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean
Meal basis is steady.
Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of
1313 and 1275 September. Support is at 1332, 1322, and 1304
September, and resistance is at 1342, 1351, and 1367
September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with
objectives of 340.00 September. Support is at 349.00,
348.00, and 343.00 September, and resistance is at 353.00,
358.00, and 365.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are
mixed to down with objectives of 5470 and 5340 September.
Support is at 5500, 5480, and 5390 September, with resistance at
5560, 5640, and 5740 September.
CANOLA AND PALM
Canola was lower on speculative long liquidation tied to the US
Dollar strength and massive selling in world stock markets.
This caused big speculative selling in Chicago and Canola went
down in sympathy Commercials were scale down buyers.
Cash movement by farmers is reported active this week as the
farmers prepare for the new crop. Most crops appear to be
in good condition. It is warm there this week and some
showers are in the forecast. European conditions are
good. Palm Oil was lower today as it reacted to Chicago
price action yesterday and the world economic fears.
Traders expect the current drier weather patterns in
Malaysia to slow production in coming weeks.
Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 590.00
November. Support is at 560.00, 553.00, and 551.00
November, with resistance at 565.00, 570.00, and 574.00
November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at
3090, 3055, and 3030 October, with resistance at 3120, 3130, and
More showers again this weekend and by the middle of
next week. Temperatures will average near normal.