The stock market has gained 10.9% as measured by S&P 500,
even after yesterday's big drop. GuruFocus
Value Strategies
have mixed performance this year, so far. Since inception, all of
them have outperformed the market.
GuruFocus has four value strategies:
1.
Buffett-Munger screener
: Invests in predictable companies that have low debt, consistent
profit margin and traded at low P/E to growth ratios.
2.
Undervalued Predictable Companies
: Invests in predictable companies that are undervalued based on
DCF model.
3.
Historical low P/S
: Companies that have high predictability rank, but are traded at
historical low P/S ratios.
4. Historical low P/B: Companies that have high predictability
rank, but are traded at historical low P/B ratios.
The annual performances of these strategies since inception are
here:
|
Year
|
S&P 500
|
Buffett-Munger Screener top 25 |
Top 25 Undervalued Predictable Companies |
Top 25 Historical Low P/S Ratio Companies |
Top 25 Historical Low P/B Ratio Companies |
| 2009 |
23.5% |
29.1% |
56.7% |
|
|
| 2010 |
12.8% |
19.1% |
19.4% |
19% |
16.4% |
| 2011 |
-0% |
6% |
-3.3% |
-2% |
-1.9% |
| 2012 |
10.9% |
8.9% |
0.8% |
13.9% |
14% |
|
Since Inception
|
77.5% |
82.4% |
32.8% |
30.2% |
|
Outperforming the S&P
|
23% |
27.9% |
7.7% |
5.1% |
|
Screener Links
|
Screener Here |
Screener Here |
Screener Here |
Screener Here |
* All numbers do not include dividends.
Historical low P/S and historical low P/B have shown quite
consistent performances. Investing in companies at historical low
valuations is a winning strategy proven by copious academic
research. In GuruFocus' strategies, we added another requirement:
The companies must have consistent business performance. We
believe that if the business is growing consistently, sooner or
later, the stock valuations will revert to the historical means
from low valuations. So far, these two strategies have
outperformed the market by about 2% a year.
Among all strategies, Buffett-Munger portfolio has shown the most
consistent performance. The
Buffett-Munger Screener
is used to find companies with high-quality business at
undervalued or fair-valued prices:
- Companies that have high Predictability Rank, that is,
companies that can consistently grow their revenue and
earnings.
- Companies that have competitive advantages. They can
maintain or even expand their profit margin while growing their
businesses.
- Companies that incur little debt while growing business.
- Companies that are fair valued or undervalued. We use PEPG
as indicator. PEPG is the P/E ratio divided by the average
growth rate of EBITDA over the past five years.
This portfolio has shown consistent performance. It has
outperformed the market every year since inception. So far this
year it is underperforming by about 2% because of one
underperformer: ITT Educational Services Inc. (
ESI
).
As a group, these companies have done well. They may not have the
market momentum with them, and they may face headwinds which
bring the valuations low. But if business continues to grow, we
believe it is safer to invest in these companies. Indeed, these
companies have outperformed the market every year since
inception.
These companies also outperformed the market by wide margins over
a long period of time in our backtesting. For details, go to:
What Worked in the Market from 1998-2008? Part II. Undervalued
Predictable Companies and Buffett-Munger Screener.
GuruFocus premium membership is needed to access the details of
the portfolios and screeners. We also publish a monthly
Buffett-Munger newsletter which features the picks from
Buffett-Munger Screener. If you are a premium member, you can
download this for free. If you are not a Premium Member, we
invite you for a 7-day Free Trial.About GuruFocus: GuruFocus.com
tracks the stocks picks and portfolio holdings of the world's
best investors. This value investing site offers stock screeners
and valuation tools. And publishes daily articles tracking the
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provides promising stock ideas in 3 monthly newsletters sent to
Premium Members
.