Mixed 1Q for BP - Analyst Blog

By Zacks.com May 01, 2012, 09:30:01 AM EDT

BP Plc 's ( BP ) first quarter 2012 earnings dropped 13.6% annually mainly due to the lackluster performance by its downstream business accompanied by the lower production volume. The British major reported quarterly earnings of $1.52 per American Depositary Share ( ADS ) on a replacement cost basis, excluding non-operating items. Results were below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65 as well as the year-earlier adjusted profit level of $1.76.

However, BP's total revenue soared 9.3% year over year to $96.7 billion in the quarter, handily beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $89.9 billion, thanks to the higher oil and natural gas price realization.

Price Realization and Production

The company sold oil for $108.13 per barrel in the first quarter (versus $93.93 in the year-earlier quarter) and natural gas for $4.68 per thousand cubic feet (versus $4.21 a year ago). Despite the improved price realizations, the 'Upstream' segment experienced a 5.9% year-over-year decrease in profit, as total production of 2.5 MMBoe/d (million barrels of oil equivalent per day) was down 6% year over year.

The volume loss was mainly due to production decline in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), which was hit by the drilling moratorium in 2010 and 2011. However, the ramp-up of production in Angola and new production from India partly offset the downfall.

Refining and Marketing (R&M)

The R&M business segment posted a profit of $924 million, down substantially from the year-ago profit level of $2.2 billion. The quarterly result reflects the effect of the lower contributions from the fuels and petrochemicals operations.

However, refining Marker Margin increased to $11.60 per barrel from $11.02 in the first quarter of 2011. Total refinery throughput increased marginally to 2,270 thousand barrels per day (MB/d) from 2,269 MB/d in the year-earlier period. Refining availability increased to 94.9% from 93.9% in the year-earlier quarter.

TNK-BP

The company separated its Exploration and Production segment to form two new operating segments, Upstream and TNK-BP, with effect from January 1, 2012. The segment registered a 2.7% year-over-year improvement in its net income on an underlying replacement cost basis owing to the higher realizations. This was partly offset by cost inflation and increased production taxes.

Segmental production climbed 4% to 1,019 thousand Boe/d (MBoe/d) from the year-earlier quarter level of 980 MBoe/d, largely attributable to the enhancement of recent new developments.

Capital Expenditure (Capex) and Asset Sale

In the reported quarter, BP's total capex was $5.6 billion as against $4.0 billion in the year-earlier quarter. Notably, almost all of the total capex was organic.

BP is well on track with the planned $38 billion divestiture program of a number of its non-strategic assets over the period of 2010-2013. Disposal proceeds for the quarter were $1.3 billion with total disposals amounted to $23 billion since the announcement of the divestiture program in 2010.

Balance Sheet

The company's net debt was $31.2 billion at the end of the first quarter compared with $27.5 billion a year ago. Net debt-to-capitalization ratio was 20.7% compared with 21.0% in the first quarter of 2011.

Net cash provided by operating activities was $3.4 billion versus $2.4 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Company Outlook

Even though the company remains active in its strategic development during the first quarter, it expects lower production in the upcoming quarter due to normal seasonal turnaround activity, particularly high-margin production in the Gulf of Mexico at Atlantis, Mad Dog and Holstein, as well as higher costs.

For the next quarter, the company expects refining margins to improve. However, the company remains apprehensive about its fuels marketing volumes and petrochemicals margins given the complex economic conditions.

To Conclude

Management remains positive on the company's growth profile and looks forward to recovery as well as consolidation in order to reduce operational risk or oil spill-related assignments. BP remains focused on a string of upstream activities in high margin areas like the GoM, Angola, the North Sea, Brazil, Australia and India that bode well for its future growth. We believe that its new strategy of active portfolio management, higher exploration activity with additional precautionary actions and refining and marketing repositioning will create value for shareholders.

While the GoM tragedy has affected BP's share performance, we expect it to recover and hence, stick to our long-term Neutral recommendation. BP holds a Zacks #3 Rank (short-term 'Hold' rating).

BP's major competitor, ExxonMobil Corp. ( XOM ) reported first quarter 2012 earnings last week. Exxon posted disappointing first quarter results on lower production volume. The company missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and the year-ago profit level by 7%.


 
BP PLC ( BP ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
EXXON MOBIL CRP ( XOM ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


This article appears in: Investing, Business, Stocks

Referenced Stocks: ADS, BP, XOM



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