Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on
Buzz & Banter
We have arrived at the moment of truth.
The bulls can deliver the knock-out punch with a breakout through
the bears will claim the dreaded "double-top" and with it, gain
some much-needed self-confidence.
If my performance this past week in the markets were an '80s rock
this would be it.
. It's lonely in the cold....
However, the only difference between being early and being wrong is
whether you're there when the trade hits. I've chronicled my
, so no need for further flagellation; suffice to say I got too big
too early-I wasn't right-sized-which put me on my heels as this
important juncture arrived.
The charts below tell the tale across multiple horizons.
The mid-term technical take demonstrates the importance of
There will be buy-stops set on the other side of that price point
much like there were sell-stops below S&P
-- and that will add further spice (and volatility) to the mix, if
Longer-term, you know the show, but the image is too powerful not
to share again.
It's the Triple Lindy
, in all her glory.
stand is a function of where you sit. I'm operating with the
portion of my pad that is used to big swings but ultimately,
discipline must always trump conviction
. While I've rolled my stops to the top end of the range, I must
ultimately defer to the truest tenet of trading, that of
Market breadth is great, leadership is balanced, and gold has room
to run before it smacks its head on $1,550.
If I were a bull, I would be feeling pretty good just about now --
maybe a little bit too good, but hey, they've earned it.
But we've seen what happens to bubbles of complacency, be it
) at $700 or
gold at $1900
I would offer that US stocks currently share that rarified air.
I'm a bear in here -- a bit burnt and a tad slimmer, with an old
hat and of course, defined risk.
As always, I hope this finds you well.