Mexico inflation seen up in Nov as central bank warns of shocks

By Reuters

Photo: Shutterstock

By Miguel Gutierrez

MEXICO CITY, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Annual inflation in Mexico is seen accelerating in November due to rising prices for electricity, tourism services and air transport, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, reducing chances of an interest rate cut in the near term.

The median inflation forecast during November from 15 banks, brokerages and other analysts came in at 6.60 percent, compared with 6.37 percent in October.

Consumer prices for November compared with October are seen up 1.01 percent, the second highest monthly increase in six years.

An uptick for prices in November would reduce chances that the central bank lowers borrowing costs in coming months, and raises the possibility that interest rates rise further before they start to fall.

Mexico's new central bank governor, Alejandro Diaz de Leon has struck a different tone on inflation than his predecessor, Agustin Carstens, emphasizing the risk of further shocks to the economy that could push prices higher in the coming months.

Diaz de Leon, who took office last week, told Reuters in an interview that inflation may not fall as forecast because of recent and future shocks, although he stuck to the bank's forecast that inflation would decrease to the 3 percent target by the end of 2018.

In the poll, core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.32 percent in the month, according to the median projection in the poll., The average forecast for annual core inflation was 4.87 percent.

Official November inflation data will be released Thursday at 1400 GMT by the national statistics agency INEGI.