The market seems to have been celebrating for awhile, but the
results are panning out: Jobless Claims are way down year over
year, registering 336K for the week. Though this is up 2,000 from
last week's adjusted 334K, the fact that we have a consistent
level below 350K has to be seen, even by the biggest naysayers of
today's economy, that things are much better than they have been.
It wasn't all too long ago we spent YEARS over the 400K mark in
Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators and the Philly Fed
survey are on tap for a busy Thursday. Any of these bringing
relatively bad news could challenge upward momentum in the
markets. But based on Jobless Claims alone, one has to point this
out: the market has been right again.
Need a crystal ball? Check the stock market.
Yes, it's true the big companies reporting "before" earnings
) missed Q1 estimates, but the macro-view has been nothing but
positive lately (…at least if you don't investigate certain small
European islands too closely).
) posted higher earnings and revenues yesterday, helping
articulate the ongoing boom in the housing market.
Housing gaining traction is not only an excellent touchstone
for market bulls, but it's also quite different from the scenario
of the past several years. As you may remember, we'd been
wandering through the desert (for what seemed like 40 years,
though it was really only 4) waiting for housing to "build"
again. Housing positively affects so many sectors within our
economy, it's very likely appearing to be a silver bullet for
America now that it's finally come around.
Then again, as a leading indicator, market bears still have
reason to squawk -- everything's up ("Uh oh!"). And right on
time, futures are down this morning. Europe was down today. Have
we already priced in all the good news from housing? That's
surely an oversimplification, but every once in awhile, there's a
good reason someone poops the party.
Existing Home Sales
are scheduled for release today at 10:00 AM EST. Our consensus
estimate shows this indicator is expected to increase to 5.01
million from the annual pace of 4.92 million reported in
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.