We expect independent oil refiner and marketer
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
) to beat expectations when it reports first quarter 2013 results
before the opening bell on Tuesday, Apr 30.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model shows that Marathon Petroleum is likely to
beat earnings because it has the right combination of two key
Positive Zacks ESP:
Earnings Expected Surprise Prediction or ESP (Read:
Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method
), the difference between the Most Accurate estimate of $2.19 and
the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.14, stands at +2.34%.
Zacks Rank #2 (Buy):
Note that stocks with Zacks Ranks of #1, 2 and 3 have a
significantly higher chance of beating earnings. The Sell rated
stocks (#4 and 5) should never be considered going into an
The combination of
Marathon Petroleum's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and +2.34% ESP makes us
confident in looking for of a positive earnings beat this
What's Driving Better-than-Expected Earnings?
Marathon Petroleum is the fifth largest domestic refiner with
a combined crude oil processing capacity of approximately
1,193,000 barrels per day through its portfolio of six
refineries. A major advantage for the company is its proprietary
access to pipelines, which inhibit lower-cost competitors from
supplying to Marathon Petroleum's key markets.
Marathon Petroleum delivered solid earnings results in the
fourth quarter, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.13%. In
fact, it delivered positive earnings surprises in 3 of the past 4
quarters, leading to a positive average earnings surprise of
Additionally, Marathon Petroleum's recent purchase of
)Texas City refinery - one of the largest and most complex in the
country - will help the company to solidify its position in the
fuel export business, apart from increasing production
Moreover, the company possesses one of the healthiest balance
sheets among peers and a robust free cash flow generating
ability. The ongoing buyback program highlights Marathon
Petroleum's commitment to create value for shareholders.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other energy firms that warrant a look as these
have the right ingredients to report earnings beat this
Exterran Partners L.P.
) has an earnings ESP of +4.35% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong
) has an earnings ESP of +28.95% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong
BP PLC (BP): Free Stock Analysis Report
EXTERRAN PTNRS (EXLP): Free Stock Analysis
MARATHON PETROL (MPC): Free Stock Analysis
SEMGROUP CORP-A (SEMG): Free Stock Analysis
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