Lexmark Sets Strong Historical Performance for Shorts Trading Shares off Pre-Market Earnings

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Lexmark International ( LXK ) is due with its Q3 results in the pre-market on Tuesday, Oct. 22, and analysts polled by Capital IQ expect the company to report a profit of $0.91 per share on revenue of $871.6 million.

Over the long term, we've found LXK has demonstrated aggressive follow-on widening moves following its last 23 of 34 earnings events.

Looking deeper into the data, the stock has gained on earnings news in 15 of the 34 quarters we've tracked. Of those 15 examples, that upside move was extended in eight quarters, or 53% of the time.

The stock tends to react negatively to earnings news, declining in 17 of the 33 quarters we've tracked. Of the 17 pre-market downside moves, the stock extended that move 15 times, or 88% of the time.

There were two other events where no pre-market trades were recorded.

The historical trading data follows:

On July 23, 2013, LXK advanced 8.1% in pre-bell trade after beating Q2 expectations and guiding Q3 EPS in line to below Street estimates. The stock narrowed its gains in that day's regular session, ending up 5.4%.

On April 23, 2013, LXK gained 3.1% in pre-market trade after topping Q1 expectations and setting mixed guidance. The stock jumped higher in that day's regular session, ending up 8%.

On Jan. 29, 2013, LXK declined 4.4% in pre-bell trade after posting mixed Q4 results and setting Q1 earnings guidance below expectations. The stock cratered lower in the regular session, ending down 15%.

On Oct. 23, 2012, LXK advanced 1.6% in pre-market trade after beating on Q3 and setting its Q4 outlook below the Street view. The stock jumped higher in that day's regular session, closing up 4%.

On July 24, 2012, LXK dropped 1.1% in pre-market trading after beating Q2 earnings estimates but also setting its Q3 outlook below expectations. The stock was crushed in that day's regular session, ending down 12.7%.

On April 24, 2012, LXK slipped 1.7% in pre-bell action after beating on Q1 but also guiding for a decline in Q2 revenue. The stock was hit for deeper declines in that day's regular session, ending down 6.5%.

On Jan. 31, 2012, LXK advanced 5.7% in pre-market trade after topping Q4 estimates. The stock lost the bulk of its upside in that day's regular session, closing up a thin 0.2%.

On Oct. 25, 2011, LXK declined 4% in pre-bell trade after posting mixed Q3 results. The stock added to its negative momentum in that day's regular session, ending down 6.5%.

On July 26, 2011, LXK soared 12.6% in pre-market trade after posting better-than-expected results. The stock surged even higher in the following regular session, ending up 17.6%.

In the pre-market of April 26, 2011, the stock tanked 12.2% after earnings that fell compared to the year-ago period and sales that missed the Street view. Shares fell an evening deeper 14.4% by the close of regular trading later that day.

On Feb. 1, 2011, LXK jumped 7.6% in pre-market trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock pushed even higher in that day's regular session, ending up 13.2%.

On Oct. 26, 2010, LXK tumbled 10.4% in pre-market trade after the company reported mixed Q3 results. The stock headed deeper in the red in that day's regular session, closing down 20.9%.

On July 27, 2010, the stock jumped 9.8% during pre-market trading after a Q2 beat. The stock rose a slightly tamer 8.4% the next day.

On April 27, 2010, LXK advanced 3.3% in pre-market trade after topping Q1 expectations. It narrowed its upside in that day's regular session, ending up 0.3%.

In the Feb. 2, 2010 pre-market session, the stock was up 13.8% after an earnings beat. Shares were up a slightly thinner 11.9% during regular trading that day.

In pre-market trading on Oct. 20, 2009, the stock jumped 11.4% after the company beat with Q3 expectations and guided for Q4 EPS to beat. Shares gained an even more aggressive 15.9% during regular trading later that day.

In the July 21, 2009, pre-market session, the stock fell 11.6% after a Q2 miss and Q3 guidance below the Street view. Shares tumbled a deeper 19.6% later that day.

On April 21, 2009, LXK shed 0.5% in pre-market trade after beating on earnings but missing on revenue. The stock added to its downside in the follow-on regular session, losing 3.7% by the April 21 closing bell.

On Jan. 27, 2009, the stock recorded no extended-hours trades after it reported. Shares edged up 0.4% the following regular session.

In the Oct. 21 pre-market, the stock did not record any trades following its two-cent miss with EPS. Shares fell 11.3% during regular trading later that day.

In the pre-market of July 22, 2008, the stock fell 4.7% despite an earnings beat from LXK. The stock fell 0.5% the following regular session.

On April 22, 2008, LXK eked out a 0.5% gain in pre-market trade after beating on Q1 but issueing weak guidance. The stock turned lower in that day's regular session, declining 8.3%.

On Jan. 29, 2008, LXK charged 12.4% higher in pre-bell action after blowing past Q4 expectations and setting earnings guidance above the then-current Street view. LXK added to its upside in the following regular session, ending the day with a gain of 15%.

On Oct. 23, 2007, LXK edged up 0.02% in pre-market trade after beating Q3 expectations and guiding above the Street for its Q4. It lost that thin gain in the following regular session, declining 7.1% by the close on Oct. 23.

In the July 24, 2007, pre-market LXK fell 2.3% after just topping with Q2 EPS and reporting revenue in line. The stock fell a slimmer 1.5% during the regular session.

On April 24, 2007, LXK tumbled 8.4% in pre-bell trade after missing Q1 earnings estimates and guiding Q2 below the Street view. It added slightly to this downside in the regular session, ending the day down 8.9%.

On Jan. 30, 2007, LXK slid 5.5% in pre-market trade after the company reported Q4 revenue flat with the year ago period but higher earnings. The stock added just slightly to its declines in the regular session, losing 5.6%.

On Oct. 24, 2006, LXK declined 3.6% in pre-market trade after the company reported a year-over-year decline in revenue and guided for flat to down revenue growth. The stock continued to slide in that day's regular session, losing 4.9%.

On July 25, 2006, LXK edged back 0.1% in pre-market trade after the company reported a year-over-year decline in quarterly revenue and guided for Q3 revenue to be flat to down. The stock recorded a far deeper decline in that day's regular session, losing 4.2% by the close.

On April 25, 2006, LXK firmed 7.4% in pre-market trade after the company beat Q1 expectations and guided in-line for its Q2 earnings. It shed some of the upside in that day's regular session, ending bell-to-bell trade up a more modest 3%.

On Jan. 24, 2006, LXK jumped 8.2% in pre-market trade after the company beat earnings expectations and guided its forward profit-view in-line to higher than the then-currest estimates. The stock added to its upside in the Jan. 24 regular session, rising 11.3% by the closing bell.

On Oct. 25, 2005, LXK lost 3.3% in pre-market trade after the company reported Q3 results that topped estimates but also set its outlook at disappointing levels. The stock added to its downside momentum in the Oct. 25 regular session, ending the day down 6.5%.

On July 26, 2005 LXK lost 6.5% in pre-market trade after the company reported in-line EPS, revenue shy of expectations, and announced job cuts. It saw more aggressive downside pressure in the July 26 regular session, losing 10.4%.

On April 26, 2005 LXK tumbled 10.3% in pre-market action after missing Q1 expectations and guiding for a possible Q2 miss. Sellers hammered away at the stock between the bells, beating it down 14% by the close.



The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

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This article appears in: Investing , Commodities

Referenced Stocks: LXK

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