Short-sellers last month significantly cut their bets against an
array of the broadest U.S. stock indexes, which looks quite
sensible in the rearview mirror considering both the S&P 500
and the Dow Jones industrials average rallied by nearly 4 percent
in June.
While financial markets are again on tenterhooks over the dismal
fiscal situation in Europe-and Spain's in particular-last month
marked something of a respite from the three-year-old eurozone debt
crisis, as short interest on non-U.S. stocks fell as well.
Most conspicuously, the number of shares short on the
PowerShares QQQ Trust (NasdaqGM:QQQ), the Nasdaq 100 ETF, dropped
42.6 percent in June, compared with a nearly 9 percent rise in the
prior month. The decline left short interest on the "Q's" at 10
percent of the ETF's outstanding long float, compared with more
than 18 percent at the end of May, according to data compiled by
IndexUniverse.
Shorts on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca:SPY) meanwhile fell
by almost 23 percent in June, compared to a 13 percent jump in May.
Also, short interest on the iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
(NYSEArca:IWM) fell by more than 7 percent last month, after
holding about steady in the prior month.
Dark Clouds Ahead?
As noted, non-U.S. stocks got something of a reprieve as well,
with shorts on the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund (NYSEArca:EFA)
dropping more than 12 percent last month, after jumping by nearly
half in the prior month, according to data compiled by
IndexUniverse. The ETF canvases the developed world outside of
North America.
That said, short interest on the CurrencyShares Euro Trust
(NYSEArca:FXE)-a long euro bet against the dollar-jumped almost 10
percent last month, in a possible sign of an underlying sentiment
that the eurozone isn't even close to being out of the woods
yet.
In that same vein, short interest in SPDR Gold Shares
(NYSEArca:GLD), the world's biggest gold ETF, dropped by almost 25
percent last month.
Even though gold prices have been under pressure recently,
short-sellers may be tidying up their positions before the next leg
up in gold's 11-year bull run.
The catalyst for such a resumption to gold's upward movement
would be more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. In its
minutes from its most recent meeting, the U.S. central bank hinted
at-but didn't commit to-possible policy actions aimed at bolstering
flagging growth.
A crucial caveat is that the drop in GLD shorts left short
interest at 3.3 percent of GLD's long interest-hardly enough to get
overly concerned about, considering the ETF has more than $65
billion in assets and only makes up one piece of the global gold
market.
Also, a standard caveat here at IndexUniverse is always in
order:When perusing short interest data, it's important to remember
that data can be flawed.
Still, short interest data are a great way to gauge
sentiment.
| Big Bets |
| Ticker |
Name |
% Float Short |
1 Month % Change |
$Short ($, M) |
| SPY |
SPDR S&P 500 |
29.95 |
-22.47 |
31,049.17 |
| IWM |
iShares Russell 2000 |
99.18 |
-7.25 |
14,511.26 |
| QQQ |
PowerShares QQQ |
10.00 |
-42.55 |
3,194.71 |
| XLE |
Energy Select SPDR |
41.01 |
-13.83 |
2,846.47 |
| XRT |
SPDR S&P Retail |
402.46 |
-13.85 |
2,247.36 |
| GLD |
SPDR Gold |
3.31 |
-24.89 |
2,178.19 |
| XLI |
Industrial Select SPDR |
62.94 |
6.79 |
2,038.98 |
| XLF |
Financial Select SPDR |
30.68 |
-22.93 |
1,892.84 |
| EWZ |
iShares MSCI Brazil |
24.56 |
-8.65 |
1,779.02 |
| EFA |
iShares MSCI EAFE |
4.78 |
-12.12 |
1,638.25 |
| Really Really Short |
| Ticker |
Name |
% Float Short |
1 Month % Change |
$Short ($, M) |
| XRT |
SPDR S&P Retail |
402.46 |
-13.85 |
2,247.36 |
| RTH |
Market Vectors Retail |
356.83 |
-11.24 |
71.11 |
| FXE |
CurrencyShares Euro |
262.73 |
9.58 |
562.24 |
| RKH |
Market Vectors Bank and Brokerage |
230.72 |
-7.70 |
41.90 |
| XOP |
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration &
Production |
198.24 |
12.35 |
1,633.60 |
| KCE |
SPDR S&P Capital Markets |
155.54 |
1.15 |
36.10 |
| RYH |
Guggenheim S&P Equal Weight Health Care |
99.73 |
14.41 |
66.51 |
| IWM |
iShares Russell 2000 |
99.18 |
-7.25 |
14,511.26 |
| DUST |
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X |
86.05 |
-20.50 |
16.11 |
| TMF |
Direxion Daily 20 Year Plus Treasury Bull 3x |
76.93 |
-9.14 |
18.07 |
Data is believed to be accurate; however, transient market data
is often subject to subsequent revision and correction by the
exchanges.
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