At first blush, the March Fed payroll number was weak.
That may not be the right takeaway from this
The right takeaway may be this economy has not changed at all
with the introduction of the latest Bond Buying in
Given the lags, that makes more sense than the market
Consider all of the facts we recieved.
Yes, the Labor Dept.'s non-farm payroll number edged up in
March +88,000. However, the change in total nonfarm payroll
employment for Jan was revised up from +119,000 to
+148,000. Change for Feb was revised up from +236,000 to
+268,000. Over the prior 12 months, jobs growth averaged +169,000
It looks like Jan added +30K more than preliminary numbers
said. Feb added +30K more. Tack the +60K revisions
onto the +88K and, lo and behold, we get to +148K net additions
over the last three months. The U.S. economy needs +125K a
month to supply a labor force growth rate of +1% a year.
Once again, this macroeconomic ship is on the same course it has
been on over the last three years.
Payroll growth of this magnitude knocks out +0.5% from the
unemployment rate each year.
The unemployment rate moved to 7.6% from 7.7% in
Other data on the workweek, earnings, overtime etc. was unchanged
or moved very little.
The Fed is likely convinced its base case for moving the
short rate in mid-2015 is safe.
Bond buying timelines are not going to change either.
Long-time, usual, suspects ended up in the Up Sector and Down
Professional and business services
added +51,000 jobs.
had a gain of +23,000, similar to the prior 12-month average.
employment continued to trend up, by +18,000. Jobs in specialty
trade contractors increased by +128,000 since September.
The gain is about equally split between residential and
leisure and hospitality,
food services and drinking places
continued to trend up in March by +13,000.
employment declined by -24,000. The industry had added an average
of +32,000 jobs per month over the prior 6 months. In March, job
declines occurred in clothing and clothing accessories stores
(-15,000), building material and garden supply stores (-10,000),
and electronics and appliance stores (-6,000).
, U.S. Postal Service employment fell by -12,000 in March.
average workweek for all employees
on private nonfarm payrolls increased +0.1 hour to 34.6 hours.
The manufacturing workweek decreased by -0.1 hour to 40.8 hours,
and factory overtime rose by +0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average
production and nonsupervisory employees
on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.8 hours.
average hourly earnings for all employees
on private nonfarm payrolls, at $23.82, changed little (+1 cent).
Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 42 cents, or
Chime in below. What is your takeaway from the
latest jobs numbers?
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