Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on
Buzz & Banter
It's a brand new day on Wall Street and the early morning tape is
edging higher. Call it a trend, call it Groundhog Day, call it par
for the course-but don't call it a given. As with any market, one
at all-time highs or otherwise, there are two sides to every trade.
The bulls will point to
the Bernanke call;
the bears will note the widespread perception of their hibernation,
as demonstrated this morning when the percentage of bears in the
AAII weekly equity sentiment poll fell to the third lowest reading
in the last eight years.
The bulls argue that the dips have become increasingly shallow; the
bears will counter with the non-confirmation in the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
(INDEXDJX:.DJI) and a
McClellan Oscillator that is extremely
The bulls pull up charts of
Chipotle Mexican Grill
); the bears will do the same with
The bulls will take solace in the ever-present performance anxiety
that is permeating a "long squeeze" to the upside; the bears will
highlight the chart of Caterpillar revenues versus world GDP (hat
With 47 sessions left in 2013 and the Dow up 18%, the
(INDEXSP:.INX) up 22%, and the
(INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) up 30%, the investment community is split into
two camps: The first is riding the rally and afraid to step off the
Matador Express for fear of being left behind. The second is
underperforming and sweating sprinkles that there won't be a
pullback. What you don't see or hear are bears making a big bet to
the downside; it would appear that "flat" is the new "short,"
haven't your heard?
Last night, while hosting an excellent Fireside Chat with Brandon
Perry, he spoke of his ability to remove emotion and suspend
judgment and simply trade the trend. It's hard to argue with that
approach as most other methodologies have been left in the dust.
The question facing investors into the home stretch of 2013 is
simple if not binary: Will the market continue to reward the dip
buyers, or will the path of maximum frustration pave an entirely
It's a spooky riddle, but with Halloween a week away, one could
argue it's apropos.