) is scheduled to report third quarter 2013 earnings before the
opening bell on Oct 28, 2013. We expect the company to beat
expectations in the third quarter.
Why a Likely Positive Surprise?
Our proven model shows that Biogen is likely to beat earnings
because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.
Positive Zacks ESP:
(Expected Surprise Prediction), which represents the difference
between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus
Estimate, is +1.40%. This is a meaningful and leading indicator
of a likely positive earnings surprise for the shares.
Zacks Rank #3 (Hold):
Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1, 2 and 3 have a
significantly higher chance of beating earnings estimates. We
caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4 and 5 (Sell-rated
stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the
company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
The combination of Biogen's Zacks Rank #3 and an ESP of +1.40%
makes us confident of an earnings beat on Oct 28.
Factors at Play
Biogen holds a strong position in the multiple sclerosis
market. While multiple sclerosis product, Tysabri, could exceed
expectations in the third quarter, the launch of Biogen's new
multiple sclerosis product Tecfidera, has also been impressive.
New scrip volume for Tecfidera should remain healthy.
Meanwhile, Avonex, Biogen's lead multiple sclerosis product
should continue performing well. Moreover, Biogen's share of
oncology product, Rituxan, could also be higher-than-expected.
Earlier this month,
) reported that Rituxan worldwide sales in the third quarter of
2013 were CHF 1,805 million, up 12% from the year-ago period.
Other Stocks to Consider
Biogen is not the only company looking up this earnings
season. We also see likely earnings beat coming from these
) has Earnings ESP of +0.48% and holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
Actavis will be reporting third quarter earnings on Oct 29 before
the market opens.
) has Earnings ESP of +1.28% and holds a Zacks Rank #3. Mylan
will be reporting third quarter earnings on Oct 31 before the
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