International Coke Revenues to Take KO higher

By Trefis Team,

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Coca-Cola's ( KO ) revenue from each case of Coke sold internationally, which includes concentrates and bottled beverages, has been rising slowly over the years. The growth is driven by slight price rises as well as an increasing contribution of bottling investments to Coca-Cola's overall revenues. Coca-Cola mainly competes with PepsiCo ( PEP ), Dr Pepper Snapple ( DPS ), and National Beverage ( FIZZ ) in the CSD market globally.

Coca-Cola is also benefiting from greater sales volumes from key emerging markets like India and China. We believe integrating the bottlers business into its own business and  leveraging its strong brand image in carbonated soft drink ( CSD ) market, Coca-Cola will be able to increase its revenues from national and international operations.

While we expect Coca-Cola's average revenue from per case of coke sold internationally will increase slowly to $1.40 by the end of Trefis forecast period, Trefis members predict a higher revenue level of close to $2, representing an upside of 6% to KO stock.

We currently have a Trefis price estimate of $60.54 for Coca Cola's stock , about 4% below the current market price of $63.04.

Bottling Business Integration to Help Controls Costs and Boost Revenues for Coca-Cola

Soft drinks manufacturers are realizing the importance of having their in-house bottling business. Coca-Cola's integration of the North American operations of bottler Coca-Cola Enterprises is a step in the right direction. The company expects to save at least $350 million per year, phased in over the next four years, as stated by Coca-Cola in its Q3 2010 earnings results.

The revenue contribution from bottling investments for Coca Cola has increased from about 18% in 2005 to over 26% in 2009. With increasing integration of bottlers, a higher portion of Coca Cola's sales volume will include bottled beverages that have a much higher selling price compared to concentrates. We expect this to sustain growth in revenue per case for Coke as well as other Coca Cola brands. One case of coke is equivalent to 192 oz volume of finished product.

Leveraging Brand Image, Market Leader Position

Coca Cola is the global market leader and its flagship brand is the highest selling CSD brand internationally, with close to 21% volume market share. A strong market position allows the company to influence its bottling partners, and Coca Cola can leverage its position to drive slight rises in concentrate prices in the future.

Coca-Cola can also leverage its brand image to bolster sales internationally, which contributes around three-fourth of its total revenues. Out of its international markets, the company is focusing mainly on countries like India, Brazil and China which are witnessing high sales growth.

Trefis Community Forecast

Trefis members forecast Coca Cola's international revenue per case will increase from $1.50  in 2011 to $1.90  by the end of the Trefis forecast period, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from $1.30  to $1.40  during the same period. The member estimates imply an upside of 6% to the Trefis price estimate for Coca Cola's stock.

Our complete analysis for Coca Cola's stock is here .

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

This article appears in: Investing , Investing Ideas , Stocks , US Markets
Referenced Stocks: CSD , DPS , FIZZ , KO , PEP

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