Gold saw the worst year in more than a decade in 2013 falling a
. The popular gold ETF
SPDR Gold Trust
) designed to deliver the return of the spot gold price plunged 27%
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF
) shed 52% last year. The latter put up with more pain as it often
trades as leveraged plays on this yellow metal.
Not only these two ultra-popular Gold-related funds,
but nearly every other gold product lost in the range of
27-28% this year. These include a variety of funds and there are
several popular choices.
Beyond GLD, these include the
iShares COMEX Gold Trust
) which tracks the spot price of gold,
Physical Swiss Gold Shares
) that holds physical gold bullion bars of secure vaults in Zurich,
Physical Asian Gold Shares
) - an option to play on gold outside Western countries by holding
bars in secure vaults in Singapore.
Investors also have a futures based option, thanks to the
PowerShares DB Gold Fund
). This product tracks the performance of the DBIQ Optimum Yield
Gold Index Excess Return plus the interest income from U.S.
Among this pack of underperformers, only one product
RBS Gold Trendpilot ETN (
stood out as a winner being largely unruffled by the gold slump in
2013 and losing only 4.8%. Let's dig a little deeper and find
what's behind TBAR's perseverance amid the gold collapse (read:
Are The Trendpilot ETNs Better Than Broad Market
Why is TBAR Breezing Past its Gold Cousins?
The key to TBAR's success was that this unusual debt instrument
looks to track the price of gold up to a certain limit. Unlike
physically backed Gold ETFs, this fund provides exposure to the
Gold Trendpilot Index.
The index is exposed either to the price of the gold bullion or the
cash rate, subject to the relative performance of gold price on a
simple historical moving average basis.
The gold price at or above the historical 200-Index business day
simple moving average for five successive business days is
considered as a positive trend and the ETN tracks the spot price of
Alternatively, a gold price below such an average calls for a
negative trend, which was basically the case in 2013. In such
cases, the index tracks the cash rate, which is the yield, derived
from a hypothetical notional investment in 3-month U.S. Treasury
This means TBAR did not reflect the return of the price of gold
bullion in most of 2013, rather it tracked treasury bonds. The
product will mirror the performance of gold only when the positive
trend is confirmed. This dual exposure strategy helped TBAR
outperform all other products relying solely on the spot price of
A Comprehensive Guide to Gold Mining ETFs
Is there Any Downside Risk?
Dodging a dreadful gold slump in 2013 comes at the cost of a
relatively high expense ratio. In fact, the product is pretty
unique in terms of expenses. The ETN charges investors 100 bps in
fees while tracking the price of gold bullion which makes it a high
cost choice in the precious metal space and costs 50 bps per annum
when the product tracks T-Bills instead.
Its volume is also very light as it trades at an average daily
volume of about 13,000 shares, thus costing investors more in terms
of a higher bid-ask spread ratio (also see
Can Gold Mining ETFs Dazzle in 2014?
Secondly, as TBAR considers the trend in the performance of gold,
it often misses out on a sudden spike in gold prices. So, the
product must not be considered by investors with a short-term gold
Also, sometimes the five-day level may be too short a time period
for some trends to develop.
Moreover, being a debt instrument of Royal Bank of Scotland, TBAR
does carry some credit risks. Probably, for the above-said reasons,
the product hasn't been able to attract much investor interest so
Debuting in February 2011, the product has garnered about $27.7
million of assets while the space bellwether GLD sits on a pile of
$31.3 billion assets. Notably, GLD charges 40 bps for its
TBAR is not a pure-play on gold and offers hedging opportunity if
gold crashes. In our opinion, it is a better suited gold product
when the underlying metal falters, or if you have a sluggish
outlook. As such, there are plenty of cost effective and less risky
products in the market to capture the winning momentum of
As of now, the year 2014 does not seem to be favorable for the
yellow metal. With $10 billion of modest tapering already decided
on and some measured taper announcement scheduled for this year,
the price of the greenback should go higher.
Equity markets are also soaring on improved economic data causing
another round of threat in the safe haven status of the yellow
Pain or Gain Ahead for Gold Mining ETFs?
However, some experts are still
on gold and expect global demand for the metal to shoot up as
investors abandon paper currencies. If gold ETFs try to turn
around at any point of time this year, they can only recoup some of
the gigantic losses incurred throughout 2013.
In short, brighter times for gold are not likely to appear before
late 2014 or 2015 which makes TBAR an interesting option for a
precious metal play, and especially for those who like the metal,
but are looking for a technical approach to gold ETF investing that
may offer lower risks in this rocky time.
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MKT VEC-GOLD MI (GDX): ETF Research Reports
SPDR-GOLD TRUST (GLD): ETF Research Reports
ISHARS-GOLD TR (IAU): ETF Research Reports
RBS-GLD TRNDP (TBAR): ETF Research Reports
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